The Mosaic Company Investor Day 2025 Highlights and Analysis

Index

1. The Mosaic Company Analyst Day 2025 Overview

2. Fertilizer Demand Dynamics

3. Digital Initiatives

4. Mosaic Performance Products (MicroEssentials, Aspire)

5. Mosaic BioSciences

6. Financial Implications

7. Final Thoughts

The Mosaic Company Analyst Day 2025 Overview

On March 18th, The Mosaic Company held its 2025 Analyst Day, looking at the future outlook and initiatives for their business.

The points of emphasis were three pronged:

• illustrating the continued demand for their commodity fertilizer business (MAP, DAP, Potash) and their ability to reduce cost to produce

• the upside of their vast distribution capabilities, or what they emphasized as market access augmented with new digital capabilities.

• specialty fertilizer and biosciences, or what Mosaic calls Performance Products.

They view their value creation pillars to be managing costs, allocating capital strategically, leveraging their market access and then redefining growth, which means layering in higher margin performance products into their market access:

The Analyst Day came at a good time for Mosaic, as they had a more challenging 2024 relative to their industry peers:

Their stock price (indexed to zero for comparison purposes) from end of 2023 reinforces further:

Mosaic has had some pressure from Wall Street to improve their capital allocation strategy, too:

Note that 55% of their capital delivered 95% of the returns according to their calculations, primarily in potash, performance products (eg: MicroEssentials), and wholesale— an intense power law that means 45% of their capital deployed returned a mere 5% of NPV. According to their financial results, they had just a 1.6% return on invested capital (ROIC) in 2024, a number no one at Mosaic, or holding shares wants to see.

A 2025 Analyst Day presented the opportunity to convey what they are doing to move things forward out towards 2030.

Fertilizer Demand Dynamics

Mosaic sees demand increasing at a 1.4% CAGR for Phosphate and 2% for Potash out to 2030:

All while expecting supply to be challenged to catch back up to demand:

Some of the Phosphate dynamics driven by China and battery demand:

Plus, demand for Biofuel expected to accelerate according to Mosaic:

Mosaic talked about their digital initiatives, too.

Digital Initiatives

Mosaic has spent the past three years executing a $300 million overhaul of its enterprise business software platform, a major investment aimed at driving cost reductions and operational efficiency. The system went live last year, and while the company is still working through the inevitable post-implementation glitches, it expects to have a fully optimized platform by the end of Q2 2025.

The early benefits are showing—Mosaic anticipates $70 million in annualized savings from technology-driven efficiencies by year-end.

Leadership sees this as just the starting point. With a modernized enterprise system in place, the company is now positioned to unlock new opportunities for cost control, process optimization, and data-driven decision-making:

There are multiple interesting aspects in the above slide, but the ability to improve inventory positioning and real time pricing data is what stands out to me:

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