Upstream Ag Insights - April 7th 2025

Essential news and analysis for agribusiness leaders.

Author

Shane Thomas
April 07, 2025 • Read Time: 19 minutes

Welcome to the 258th edition of Upstream Ag Insights—the most trusted resource for strategic insights by over 20,000 agribusiness leaders. Upstream Ag Insights is written by agribusiness professionals, for agribusiness professionals. Below you’ll find critical industry news, strategic frameworks, and detailed analysis designed to give you a competitive edge and satiate your curiosity.

Thank-you for being an Upstream Ag Insights subscriber!

Index

  1. The Insight is the Edge: Vive Crop Protection

  2. Carbon Robotics Introduces Tractor Autonomy Solution: An Illustration of Complements

  3. The $1B Lie: Why Agtech Doesn’t Fit the VC Fantasy

  4. 2024 Global Crop Protection Market Review and 2025 Outlook

  5. a. FY 2024 Crop Protection & Seed Company Results: A Deep Dive into Themes, Highlights and Analysis

  6. Stratus Ag Research: Evolution of Channel Influence Study 2024 Highlights and Analysis

  7. UPL Corp and Provivi Join Forces

  8. 10-Years of Integrating Geospatial, Transactional and Agronomic Information

  9. Lindsay Q2 2025 Highlights

  10. Deere, AGCO face deeper slump from tariff tensions

  11. New! Agribusiness Financial Data Workbooks Available

  12. Pure Independence

  13. Other Interesting Ag Articles (5 this week)

This week’s edition of Upstream Ag Insights is brought to you in partnership with Cultiva:

Fruit growers know that environmental stressors can take a toll on yield and quality—but what if the first line of defense was the fruit itself? The plant cuticle, a protective layer on leaves and fruit, plays a critical role in reducing water loss, improving stress resilience, and preventing cracking and skin disorders.

By supplementing the cuticle throughout the season, growers can:

  • Strengthen trees’ natural defenses

  • Reduce stress-related damage

  • Improving marketable yields year after year

Parka® , Cultiva’s proven cuticle supplement, helps orchard managers take a proactive approach to fruit protection in cherries, apples, almonds, citrus and other high-value crops. As cuticle care moves from a niche practice to a mainstream strategy, growers are seeing the long-term benefits—healthier trees, improved yields, and better returns. Discover why more growers are adopting cuticle care to boost profitability.

1. The Insight is the Edge: Vive Crop Protection - Upstream Ag Professional

True strategic advantage rarely begins with technology or talent. It begins with insight.

An insight is more than a piece of data or an observation. 

It is the ability to see clearly, often counterintuitively, into a market, a customer, or a capability. And when acted upon, it becomes the foundation of a differentiated strategy.

As Michael Porter famously argued, competitive advantage is a function of choice: a firm must not only decide where to compete but how it will do so differently. The worst outcome is strategic ambiguity— being stuck in the middle, pursuing multiple directions at once and achieving none.

Insight is what prevents that. It clarifies direction. It exposes opportunities that others overlook. And it provides the conviction to commit.

In today’s ag input sector, an industry long driven by blockbuster chemical discovery and global-scale product launches, one example of a company demonstrating the power of insight-led strategy is Vive Crop Protection.

Rather than chase billion-dollar molecules, Vive is rethinking the very structure of crop protection product development. Its model is not built on invention, but on a sharper understanding of where value is being lost and how it can be recaptured through formulation, delivery, and customer-centric design.

As I wrote in The Insight is the Edge:


World-class companies lead their customers—because they see something others don’t. That insight gives them the edge.

Vive Crop Protection is putting that principle into practice and in doing so, reimagining what innovation looks like in crop inputs.

Become an Upstream Ag Professional member to take a look at Vive Crop Protection and their approach to changing the crop protection market, including a look at:

  1. The Insight is the Edge

  2. Historical Product Development is Discovery Led

  3. Rethinking Product Development

  4. Lessons from Pharma

  5. “Riches are in the Niches”

  6. Counterintuitive Belief

  7. Explicit vs. Implicit Needs

  8. Final Thoughts

Plus images highlighting the variance in R&D investment by crop protection company and their EBITDA margin trends over the last 5 years:

Carbon Robotics, the leader in AI-powered farming, today announced the launch of Carbon AutoTractor, a breakthrough tractor autonomy solution. Powered by Carbon AI, Carbon AutoTractor is installed on existing tractors and is remotely monitored by Carbon Robotics operators, who handle interventions in real time to ensure seamless operation. Carbon AutoTractor delivers reliable, uninterrupted autonomous tractor operation—helping farmers increase productivity, reduce labor dependency, and scale operations.

This product expansion from Carbon Robotics (CR) is a smart expansion for their business.

In February when I covered CRs G2 product launch and what is needed to improve the value proposition I stated the following:

Autonomy to remove the labor constraint and complete more acres per 24 hours.

Autonomy is a complement to CRs laser weeding system. 

For the full breakdown of the logic of Carbon Robotics using complements, an assessment of their pricing strategy, whether Carbon Robotics autonomy product can compete with the likes of Deere, CNH and AGCO, and a look at when/if Carbon Robotics will IPO, become an Upstream Ag Professional member:

This is a very well written article.

I have had conversations with groups like Tenacious Ventures and other founders in agtech on the subject. With conversations going towards unique takes on a venture studio, to shrinking funds sizes and earlier investment focuses, to a form of distressed PE that focuses on stagnant VC funded agtech companies. One founder I talked to asked a different question that I think is compelling and effectively frames the question as: Is the real problem not thinking big enough? After all, a VCs North Star is grand slams. Traditional venture capital is about power law outcomes. Without the grand slams you are playing a fundamentally different game.

I don’t have the answer. But access to capital remains important and the conversation I think stirs up a lot of insightful commentary.

As an aside, Newcomer recently shared the internal rate of return (IRR) of various generalist VC firms with a ~2017-2021 vintage (2018 image below). The results are less than stellar, especially considering the S&P 500 has returned around ~10% and the NASDAQ returned around 18% over the same period of time (2018 to end of 2024):

I asked multiple agtech VCs if anyone had an idea of general IRRs, or would share their IRR… none shared their returns and the speculations was that any agtech focused fund relative to those shared in the Newcomer article would be “bad.”

After two years of high input costs, surging demand, and logistical unpredictability, 2024 marked a full reset in the global crop protection market. Driven by a combination macro economic headwinds, weather volatility, and excess inventory.

For a full summary of the 2024 season, and access to the FY 2024 Crop Protection & Seed Company Results: A Deep Dive into Themes, Highlights and Analysis, become an Upstream Ag Professional member today:

Rethinking Technology Spend in Agriculture

As agribusinesses scale and diversify their operations, technology costs are becoming harder to manage—and even harder to justify. The shift toward managed services offers a smarter way forward.

Key advantages include:

  • Up to 50% reduction in technology costs through outsourced infrastructure and support

  • Improved system integration across agronomic, retail, and operational platforms

  • Reduced internal IT burden, freeing teams to focus on strategy

  • Scalable solutions tailored to the needs of complex ag enterprises

To see how this model could apply to your organization, consult with the team at FarmersEdge.ca.

Stratus Ag Research released their 2024 Evolution of Channel Influence report and it has fantastic insights for ag retailers, crop protection companies, and anyone working with U.S. farmers.

A few highlights that stood out to me:

- Loyalty is eroding. Farmers are increasingly promiscuous with their input purchases and the number of retails they look for pricing from.

- Retail influence remains, but it is decreasing...partly because of a lowering number of support functions executed for the farmer. Influence erosion is real and it has implications for crop protection manufacturer strategy, too.

- Farmer's Business Network, Inc. continues to surge in both price-checking and direct purchase behavior.

- Digital augmentation is becoming crucial to the farmer buying experience with the most ambitious and progressive farmers demanding the most in this area.

Farmer expectations are rising and the winners in the coming years will be those who rethink how they support the customer journey— from digital tools to on-farm relationships.

For exclusive access to 12 images like the above, including how digital augmentation can improve each point of the customer experience, quantified insights into FBN uptake and influence, a look at retail loyalty by grower including average number of retails purchased from, usage of independent consultants, farmer perception on digital decision influence and AI in the next decade, how influential each point/type of contact is on a farmers decision to buy and what all of this means for the future of crop protection manufacturer grower strategy in the next 5 years, become an Upstream Ag Professional member:

Related to the commentary and findings, albeit not directly applicable because Brazil is a different market, but it is interesting to see how UPL is leveraging novel financing from a startup to manage its credit risk:

6. UPL Corp and Provivi Join Forces in Mexico - Provide

The FAW Eco-Dispenser is crafted from eco-friendly materials, ensuring long-lasting efficacy with minimal environmental impact. It directly targets Fall Armyworm by disrupting the moths’ mating process, reducing egg-laying and preventing the emergence of destructive caterpillars. This preventive approach significantly reduces damage to crops, aligning with both companies’ commitment to promoting long-term food security.

Pheromones and the entire semiochemical group remain an interesting segment for crop protection.

FMC is launching a new sprayable product in Brazil this year, while the UPL and Provivi collaboration is based on traditional mating disruption through its FAW Eco-Dispenser, which is a controlled-release dispenser of pheromones to disrupt the mating behavior of Fall Armyworm moths, lowering the pest risk and need for insecticide.

UPL joins Syngenta in having a collaboration with Provivi.

Bayer Crop Science has a partnership with M2i.

FMC acquired BioPhero in 2022.

This week I read a post from EFC Systems founder Ernie Chappell highlighting the 10-year anniversary of his then ERP-centric business, initiating the acquisition of agronomic and geospatial assets that would be one of the first to integrate agronomic, geospatial and transactional/financial data together for agribusinesses and farmers.

EFC Systems was acquired by EverAg which now houses the entirety of the ERP, geospatial and agronomic software components that makeup the agribusiness segment (Merchant and Fieldalytics).

I still believe this integration is a key component for realizing the potential of precision agriculture:

8. Lindsay Q2 2025 Highlights - Lindsay Corp.

Lindsay delivered solid irrigation performance in Q2, with total segment revenue up 11% year-over-year to $148.1 million. The composition of that growth notably conveys a story of international momentum offsetting domestic challenges.

North America

  • North American irrigation revenue declined 7% year-over-year to $77.1 million.

  • Weaker numbers were driven by:

    • Lower irrigation equipment volumes

    • Slightly lower average selling prices

    • Reduced replacement part sales

  • Management does not anticipate near-term demand expansion. The USDA’s projected 29% increase in U.S. net farm income is largely tied to government payments, not improved crop receipts— limiting its influence on capital purchases like irrigation systems. Crop sales are projected to be slightly lower compared to last year.

International

  • International revenue grew 42% year-over-year to $71.0 million.

  • Growth was led by continued execution of a large irrigation project in the MENA region, which slightly outpaced initial quarterly expectations.

  • Additional upside came from non-project sales in MENA, while Brazil held flat year-over-year with signs of market stabilization.

  • Foreign exchange headwinds (~$4.7 million) partially offset international gains.

  • Lindsay continues to benefit from government-backed food security and water conservation initiatives in developing markets.

Trade Tensions and Other Comments

  • New tariffs on imports from Taiwan and Korea could increase costs, particularly for electrical components.

  • Estimated impact is a mid-single-digit increase in cost of goods sold.

  • Lindsay is actively managing through supplier shifts, inventory builds, and targeted use of its global manufacturing footprint.

  • More concerning is the potential impact of retaliatory tariffs on U.S. ag exports. If U.S. grain demand weakens, farmer sentiment could decline further, slowing irrigation investment.

  • There was no commentary on connected devices. In their Q1 2025 earnings call executives alluded to how Pessl and Lindsay had 220,000 total connected devices globally and suggesting that since April 2024 they had added 20,000 new devices to farms or roughly 10% growth in ~8 months.

Related: Phytech Introduces AI-Powered Irrigation Advisor - Precision Farming Dealer

An intensifying trade battle in ag commodities risks a longer cycle trough.

AGCO is likely even more impacted because of its reliance on European imports — ~25% of its U.S. machine sales come from Europe, which would be directly affected by tariffs as they currently are stated.

Consistent with the Lindsay Corp. executive commentary during their Q2 earnings call, government support can stabilize farm balance sheets, but is unlikely to drive investment in equipment.

Meanwhile, CNH Industrial has halted equipment shipments from European and North American plants until they can assess the tariff impact.

For those interested in US/China tariff implications on crop protection, this article provides a great background:

New Digital Product for Agribusiness Leaders

Unlock the Power of Data-Driven Insights with Our Comprehensive Agribusiness Financial Workbooks

Are you looking to develop deep financial performance understanding of the world of agribusiness? Our Excel workbooks provide you with the financial data you need to have the deepest understanding of the agribusiness landscape and stay ahead of the competition.

Covering over two years of detailed financial information from industry leaders such as Bayer Crop Science, Corteva, Syngenta, BASF, Mosaic, John Deere, Yara, Nutrien, ICL and more, these workbooks are your gateway to establish the deepest understanding of what is going on with the most influential agribusinesses in the world.

This data was compiled by Chartered Financial Analysts and put into Excel Workbooks that make any agribusiness professional capable of creating valuable charts, building useful pivot tables, gaining a deeper understanding of industry trends and seamlessly comparing each company to one another.

Plus, it comes with pre-built dashboards comparing companies by quarter on important KPIs, including R&D, EBITDA, Revenue, Revenue per Employee, Gross Margin , SG&A plus more!

Overview of Companies

Financials include data from Q4 2022, Full Year 2023 and Full Year 2024 for all of the below companies.

The purchase includes three separate Excel Workbooks:

  1. Crop Protection and Seed Manufacturers Financial Data (Bayer, Corteva, Syngenta, BASF, FMC, UPL, Nufarm, Bioceres, KWS)

  2. Fertilizer Manufacturer Financial Data (Yara, CF Industries, Mosaic, Nutrien, ICL, OCP)

  3. Equipment Manufacturer Financial Data (John Deere, CNH Industrial, AGCO, Lindsay Corp., Valmont Industries, Titan Machinery)

*Plus, get a complimentary 6 month subscription to Upstream Ag Professional with your purchase!

Non Ag Article

Pure Independence - Morgan House

“Jeff Bezos said many times that if we wanted Amazon to be a place where builders can build, we needed to eliminate communication, not encourage it.”

The idea is that if you want to do something great, you cannot have a group of people constantly telling you what you’re doing wrong and why it doesn’t mesh with their own goals. That’s not because those other people might be wrong; it’s because they might be playing a different game than you are.

Other Interesting Ag Articles

Vestaron has achieved multiple strategic milestones over the past twelve months, including surpassing 1 million acres of Vestaron products sprayed.

Demeter Data Platform Launches - Demeter (a nice platform for those looking to visualize and understand data from the agrifood value chain)

A few social media accounts began posting a recurring series of posts with accusations against Carstens and his leadership of Landus.

One account posting the accusations on X can be found here.