Upstream Ag Insights - January 13th 2025

Essential news and analysis for agribusiness leaders.

January 13, 2025 • Read Time: 20 minutes

Welcome to the forefront of agricultural innovation with the 246th edition of Upstream Ag Insights, where over 19,500 agribusiness leaders start their week discovering critical industry news and absorbing the latest must-know information shaping the future of agriculture.

Happy New Year!

I hope you had a wonderful Holiday Season and your 2025 is off to a fantastic start.

Index:

  1. Illustrative AgTech Insights: The Last Mile Driving Product Decisions and Experience in Agribusiness

  2. John Deere Autonomy Announcement at CES: Autonomous Functionality, But Can They Replace the Judgement?

  3. Digital platforms in the agricultural sector: Dynamics of oligopolistic platformization

    1. Monopolistic Inertia

  4. Bayer Crop Science and BioFuel Announcements

    1. Bayer Acquires Camelina Assets from Smart Earth Camelina Corp. to Advance Biofuels

    2. Bayer and Neste to Collaborate on Developing Feedstocks for Renewable Fuels

  5. Lindsay Corporation Reports Fiscal 2025 First Quarter Results + Finalizes Pessl Minority Position

  6. Artificial intelligence is speeding up the development of the next generation of biostimulants 

  7. Inari Raises $144 Million, Paving Path to Long-Term Growth

  8. The Good Ones Know More

  9. Other Interesting Ag Articles (7 this week)

This week’s edition of Upstream Ag Insights is brought to you in partnership with Farmers Edge:

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During the Holiday break I didn’t publish, but I still aggregated notable ag related articles. For those interested, check out the below:

In a 2024 Ag Equipment Intelligence survey, results showed that agricultural equipment brand loyalty among farmers declined to 62% in 2024— a drop from its peak in 2017, when 75% of growers considered themselves loyal to a specific brand.

But what’s interesting is why.

Of the major reasons cited, nine of them were unrelated to the piece of equipment or manufacturer themselves. They were directly related to the support from the dealership:

Farmers aren’t blindly loyal to brands, but very influenced by the experience around the brand— the support, the service, and the people available once they have made a purchase.

The same is experienced in the crop protection world.

This edition of Illustrative Agtech Insights includes four images from exclusive survey data that is valuable to understand the influence of localized farmer support on product and brand utilization. Then the article dives into a framework for thinking about the customer experience.

Index

  1. Ag Equipment Intelligence Brand Loyalty Survey

  2. Stratus Ag Research Boosting Ag Retailer Success Survey Data

  3. Stratus Ag Research Biostimulant Route to Farm and Customer Product Perception

  4. Direct-to-Farmer Models

    1. Pivot Bio

    2. Indigo Ag

    3. Meristem Crop Performance

    4. Swarm Farm

  5. Experience Mapping

  6. Friction Reduction

  7. Final Thoughts

2. John Deere Autonomy Announcement at CES: Autonomous Functionality, But Can They Replace the Judgement? - YouTube

John Deere revealed several new autonomous machines during a press conference at CES 2025 to support customers in agriculture, construction, and commercial landscaping. Building on Deere's autonomous technology first revealed at CES 2022, the company's second-generation autonomy kit combines advanced computer vision, AI, and cameras to help the machines navigate their environments.

John Deere specifically announced four machines including in landscaping, construction horticulture and the following on large scale agriculture:

  • Autonomous 9RX Tractor — With the second-generation autonomy kit, featuring 16 individual cameras arranged in pods to enable a 360-degree view of the field, the kit calculates depth more accurately at larger distances, allowing the tractor to pull wider equipment and drive faster. The offering is for tillage initially and will be adding planter and grain cart functionality.

Focusing on the 9RX Autonomy Kit, the initial 2022 release was for tillage, the new version will eventually be available to do tillage, planting and grain cart operation. The 16-camera array add-on will be available on a limited basis for 2025 with a full release in 2026. It is important to emphasize, this is a retrofit kit that can be installed on 2017-and-newer tractors.

Deere has upgraded the perception system on the 9 Series tractors to include roof-mounted sensors, providing a 360-degree view of the machine's surroundings that further expand sensor range compared to the first generation. The gen 2 capabilities mean the machine can move 40% faster and move implements twice as wide as before.

The design improves upon previous obstacle avoidance systems that relied on front-mounted cameras, delivering an enhanced perception setup housed within a Vision Processor Unit (VPU) on the cab roof. During the keynote, Deere also highlighted some of the edge cases they encounter trying to get the current generation in commercial form, including the challenge of moths being attracted to the sensor light at night, causing the tractor be brought to a halt until they could figure it out.

These advancements position the 9 Series as the backbone of autonomous operations in large-scale farming, reinforcing John Deere’s commitment to offering a fully autonomous farming system in place by 2030.

Additionally, in 2021 John Deere acquired BearFlag Robotics. Some of the technology from that acquisition is within the new offering.

The Fully Autonomous Farm is Still Not Here

Deere Chief Technology Officer Jahmy Hindman highlighted the unique challenges of scaling autonomy to applications like spraying and harvesting, which require machines to perceive through crop vegetation or fully mature crops whereas tillage operates in a relatively straightforward environment. Hindman also noted that these other interventions will need advanced sensor technology to handle these sorts of situations.

Driving is only one component of what the labor does in the cab.

For the full overview on what is necessary, from John Deere, and other autonomous equipment manufacturers to consider in order to gain broad interest, business model speculation, and adoption of autonomy beyond basic tillage, become an Upstream Ag Professional member:

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Our findings indicate that Big Tech and multinational agribusinesses attempt to collaboratively establish digital platforms as the core organisational form of digital agriculture, aiming to centralise services through their platforms. However, despite these efforts, most sectoral platforms are not yet profitable, raising questions about the long-term viability of their strategies. Still, this process, shaped by pre-existing market structures, will likely reinforce the market position of established companies.

I received a few questions on this paper over the last couple weeks and read a few posts on Linkedin surrounding it. The “hero” image of the paper grabs attention:

In reading the paper I am not convinced there is anything new uncovered, nor is the tie between cloud computing (an enabling infrastructure, just like a road) a valid reinforcement of agricultural oligopolies a useful point of emphasis— it has been widely acknowledge that agribusinesses want to centralize decision making, purchases, precision ag etc through their software, with little success as highlighted in the above quote.

More than anything, and not news, the paper signals the lack of choice that agricultural entities have regarding cloud providers.

The major cloud provider market share roughly breaks down like this:

  • Amazon Web Services — ~30%

  • Microsoft Azure — ~20%

  • Google Cloud Play — ~10%

  • Oracle and IBM in low single digits.

Interoperability and data standardization have been two hurdles to digital ag value creation and if anything, the paper actually suggests that there is an increasing likelihood that interoperability challenges can be alleviated given the nature of cloud infrastructure, along with companies like Leaf Agriculture, for example.

For more on why start-ups benefit more from cloud infrastructure than incumbents, become an Upstream Ag Professional member today:

3a. Monopolistic Inertia - Upstream Ag Professional

Monopolistic Inertia refers to the phenomenon where oligopolistic firms, dominating sequential points in a value chain, develop a mutual reliance, reinforcement and benefit of their established roles, behaviors, and practices. This interconnected dependence discourages innovation or change and evolution within an industry, leading instead to a preference for incremental improvements.

An overview of how it impacts agriculture, agtech and innovation.

4. Bayer Crop Science and BioFuel Announcements

Bayer announced a deal with Canada-based Smart Earth Camelina Corp., whereby Bayer has acquired their camelina germplasm, intellectual property, and materials to expand its global leadership position in biomass-based feedstock markets. This acquisition underlines Bayer’s goal to help decarbonize the transportation sector and to deliver regenerative agriculture solutions through the investment and development of intermediate oilseed crops to meet the demand of the growing renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) markets which is estimated to increase from 14 billion to 40 billion gallons by 2040.

Camelina, historically grown in Europe, Russia, and Central Asia for oil and protein, was largely replaced by rapeseed in the 1940s. Given the interest in biofuels, its potential has gained renewed attention in North America.

Camelina offers a few cropping advantages compared to other oilseeds:

  • thrives on marginal land

  • does better with fewer inputs relative to other oilseeds

  • demonstrates good drought and cold tolerance

  • has a short life cycle

  • is naturally resistant to diseases that commonly affect canola.

  • is suitable for spring and winter planting in regions like the Northwest U.S. and Western Canada and can serve as a winter oilseed in corn and soybean rotations in the Midwest.

According to Yield10 Biosciences 2023 annual report, camelina can yield 60-100 gallons of oil per acre. 1 billion gallons of feedstock oil would therefore require 10 to 15 million acres of camelina production.

Camelina is relatively untapped when it comes to genetic advances, such as herbicide tolerance and high omega-3 oil content, which is where Bayer can leverage its strengths to unlock its potential for many applications, including biofuels, or into aquafeeds, and nutraceuticals.

Neste is one of the largest biofuel producers globally, with revenue in 2023 of ~€ 23 billion. Neste is known for it’s Renewable Diesel, Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), and Renewable Polymers and Chemicals.

Bayer and Neste are teaming up under a new MOU to scale winter canola as a biomass feedstock for renewable products (eg: biofuels). The partnership aims to establish a winter canola system in the Southern Great Plains, with Bayer driving product development and collaborating further to break into this market.

What is notable is that Bayer Crop Science now has efforts on the following three oilseed crops in the US:

  • Camelina

  • Winter canola

  • CoverCress

Including partnerships with Chevron through CoverCress.

For a deep dive into where Bayer might prioritize each crop, comparative approaches from the likes of Nufarm and Corteva, what we can learn from an in-depth Trait Commercialization report about seed and trait company future initiatives and what that drives from an incentives and focus perspective, along with what it might mean for improving the ag value chain towards “decommoditization,” become an Upstream Ag Professional member today:

5. Lindsay Corporation Reports Fiscal 2025 First Quarter Results + Finalizes Pessl Minority Position - Lindsay Corporation

Lindsay shared its Q1 2025 results this week, with the highlight coming from international irrigation revenue growing by 37%, primarily driven by projects in the Middle East and North Africa.

They had additional growth in Europe and parts of Latin America, although Brazil experienced softer sales due to challenging market conditions.

North American irrigation revenue declined by 13%, driven by reduced unit sales, shorter machine preferences (less towers), and lower average selling prices.

Irrigation segment revenues overall for Q1 2025 were $147.1 million, an increase of $6.9 million, or 5 percent, compared to $140.2 million in Q1 2024.

An interesting note was the growth in sensor devices for Lindsay over the last ~8 months.

For an overview of Lindsay CEO Randy Wood commentary over the last ~9 months and how that pieces together the Lindsay sensor device growth in the fields, and what it might mean for future recurring revenue growth, become an Upstream Ag Professional member:

Syngenta will use its extensive knowledge of crop biology to complement TraitSeq’s proprietary AI methods to identify highly specific indicators of a plant’s cellular state called biomarkers. When activated, these biomarkers can indicate how well a plant is responding to efforts to boost its health or to block the effects of external, abiotic stressors.

This is a smart initiative by Syngenta and consistent with what I have talked about as being foundational for being successful in biostimulants in The Sauce Paradox and getting farmers and advisors to a point of conviction: understand exactly how a product works.

For a breakdown of what TraitSeq can do, what they will be answering for Syngenta, a fit for the Funnel of Specificty and why it is important for all companies in the biostimulant space, become an Upstream Ag Professional member:

Inari, the SEEDesign™ company, today announced the completion of a $144 million fundraise fueled by the performance of its first-generation products and progress toward commercialization. With cumulative equity raised of more than $720 million, the new capital underpins the leading pure-play seed technology company’s financial strength and paves the way for long-term growth.

The raise is a large one for Inari and one of the largest upstream agtech investments over the last few years.

The company is focused on seed trait technology for large-acre row crops such as soybeans, corn and wheat. Inari still appears a ways away from bringing a product to market, though.

In looking at The Context Network's 2024 Biotech Traits Commercialized (BTC) Study (linked previously above), Inari is primarily in R&D phase 2 for most of their non-transgenic traits, including:

  • Corn height trait

  • Corn nutrient and water use efficiency

  • Corn herbicide tolerance and insect resistance

  • Soybean high yield

Inari claims these traits can decrease water and nutrient use by upwards of 40% and increase yield by upwards of 20%.

Phase 2 in ag biotech R&D focuses on validating a product through field trials, regulatory data collection, and optimization for market readiness. Products in Phase 2 are typically ~5 years from commercialization, depending on regulatory complexity, trial results, and market preparation. This suggests Inari is still years away from having their products used by farmers commercially.

Inari remains in a patent lawsuit from Corteva.

The lawsuit alleges that Inari unlawfully obtained Corteva's protected seeds through a third-party agent, exported them to Belgium without authorization, made slight genetic modifications, and sought U.S. patents for these modified traits. Inari then allegedly attempted to extort Corteva into an arrangement by telling Corteva that it was prepared to commercialize a corn product with a derivative of the event covered by the 434 patent.

In response, Inari filed a motion to dismiss the case. However, in August 2024, a U.S. District Judge denied this motion, allowing Corteva's lawsuit to proceed.

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Non Ag Article

This is a good article that dives into cyclical patterns in venture capital (VC), highlighting similarities across decades and offering insights into what might happen next.

Suggestions include the shutdown of underperforming VC firms and capital consolidation among larger players, the downsizing of funds and fees as firms “right-size” during tough times, generational transitions with senior leaders stepping back and younger investors rising, and shifts toward non-technical businesses and other asset classes.

It also notes the disproportionate challenges faced by Corporate Venture Capital (CVC) during downturns, including these stats:

CVCs made up <3% of capital deployed in 1980 but the tech boom of the early ‘80s saw it peak at close to ~10% of capital deployed in 198526. This was back down to <3% by the early ‘90s. CVC activity rose again through the ‘90s, peaking at 25% of capital deployed in 2000 before quickly jumping back to single digits in the years to come.

While the ongoing AI wave could catalyze a new cycle, the article suggests that historical patterns will likely re-emerge, creating opportunities for emerging investors.

Other Interesting Ag Articles

“Phenix will serve as the foundational program for global Corteva crop protection field research scientists to conduct digital assessments. Its advanced features include specific tools for in-field plot mapping and image quantification.”

Gen 3 AgTech 🚂 - Prime Future