Upstream Ag Insights - March 17th 2025

Essential news and analysis for agribusiness leaders.

Author

Shane Thomas
March 17, 2025 • Read Time: 23 minutes

Welcome to the 255th edition of Upstream Ag Insights—the most trusted resource for strategic insights by over 20,000 agribusiness leaders. Upstream Ag Insights is written by agribusiness professionals, for agribusiness professionals. Below you’ll find critical industry news, strategic frameworks, and detailed analysis designed to give you a competitive edge and satiate your curiosity.

Thank-you for being an Upstream Ag Insights subscriber!

Index

  1. World AgriTech Innovation Summit Takeaways

  2. FY 2024 Fertilizer Company Highlights and Analysis

  3. Co-op Leads The Way With Using Selective Spraying: Systems Thinking, The Red Queen and Commoditized Complements

  4. The Precision Revolution: Foundations of Precision Spraying in Agriculture

  5. AgPlenus CEO on following pharma’s footsteps when developing new crop protection products

  6. M&As in 2024 Biological Industry: Empowering Industry Upgrading and Reshaping

  7. AGCO at JP Morgan Industrials Conference and Morgan Stanley Technology Conference

  8. Hidden in Plain Sight: Why Assumptions Matter More Than Predictions

  9. The Five Principles of Good Capital Allocation

  10. Other Notable Ag Articles (10 this week)

This week’s edition of Upstream Ag Insights is brought to you in partnership with Farmers Edge:

Chicken or Egg? The AgTech Adoption Dilemma

Technology in agriculture is advancing fast, but adoption still lags. Is the problem slow adoption by farmers, or is technology too complex to implement? Many agribusinesses struggle with disconnected systems, data silos, and change management—leading to underutilized tech.

The solution? 

A strategy focused on execution, integration, and usability.

Learn how Farmers Edge Managed Services is enabling agribusinesses to optimize technology, drive adoption, and turn digital investments into real results.

1. World AgriTech Innovation Summit Takeaways

The overall sentiment at this year's World AgriTech Innovation Summit was notably subdued. Attendance seemed lower, and conversations carried a tone of concern.

Between investor uncertainty in ability to raise further funds, which startups to prioritize, startup survival concerns, and broader ag and macro economic market challenges, the conference definitely reflected the headwinds facing agribusinesses, investors and agtech companies today.

Investor Sentiment

Venture capital firms and other investors seemed to be increasingly scrutinizing their investments and questioning where returns will come from. Raising new funds seemingly remains difficult (there are more firms, inside and outside agtech, than ever looking for capital), and the appetite for deploying capital into upstream agriculture seems to be waning— particularly from those that are not “ag” focused (eg: have a downstream food mandate, “climate tech” focus etc.). Many of the investors I talked to were prioritizing the conference to connect with and support their current portfolio, or raise funds for themselves.

The question around returns and raising are not unique to ag, though— given that ag has been challenged at delivering returns relative to other industries, does bring up the question of whether the farm gate upward in the value chain is the best place to park dollars to maximize LP returns:

Source: Pitchbook

"Default Alive"

With fewer new funds available, startups are prioritizing "default alive"— zeroing in their focus and cutting expenses. The only options being to prioritize profitability— the term sheets that are out there do not sound great and bridge rounds seem like they are decreasing, meaning down rounds will be common for those that do find capital and flat rounds will be considered a positive.

With that said, I spoke with a handful of startups that remain optimistic. They also acknowledge that raising capital is not a business model in and of itself like some seemingly have assumed.

These optimistic companies have carved out a unique value proposition for farmers or agribusinesses—solving unique problems in ways that resonate with the market and are not competing directly with other segments. The common theme among them: focus and controlling the controllable.

Regardless of what the macro-environment and sentiment is, there will always be room for innovative and disciplined companies that are solving a problem for agribusinesses and/or farmers.

Exit Potential: Who is Buying?

Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) remain a lever for incumbents, but not all large agribusinesses are in a great financial position to acquire— even with valuations coming down. A few that seem positioned well based off balance sheet, executive commentary and long term focus:

  • Corteva has explicitly stated its focus on M&A, with particular interest in biologicals and gene editing technologies.

  • John Deere, has a long term mindset and likely recognizes that current market conditions allow for acquiring bolt-on technologies and personnel at a discount compared to just 18 months ago.

  • Nutrien has also stated they are interested in investing in their proprietary products business.

These companies are better capitalized (relative to other ag companies) which has them in a position to augment themselves through selective acquisitions at opportunistic prices.

With the uncertainty in the market I wonder if we will see more of what occurred with EarthOptics and PatternAg merging and raising capital from investors as one? Or, if valuations are down enough to entice more private equity roll ups, such as we have seen with Ever.Ag and more recently with BW Fusion and Bain, for example.

AI, Robotics, Digital and Regen Ag

Areas that I had conversations on:

  • AI — There is continued interest in artificial intelligence, but uncertainty remains around its tangible applications in agriculture. While the potential for decision-support tools and automation exists, many discussions revolved around AI's ability to reduce labor costs rather than fundamentally change decision-making. There has been a view that AI for decision making will generate interest and value, however, this seemingly remains to be seen, at least in terms of farmers and agribusinesses willingness to pay. Where there seems to be more interest is in where there is tangible ability to cut costs, such as labor (which leads more to second point on robotics).

    • I had a conversation with Syngenta CIO/CDO Feroz Sheikh and he reinforced that Syngenta sees AI tools creating value in crop protection discovery from both an efficiency perspective and a cost reduction perspective.

    • There seemed to be an emphasis on “AI” companies, but from my point of view it wasn’t clear what specific type of AI to be bullish on in any short term (<3 years) future (eg: machine vision or GenAI etc)

  • Robotics — Interest in automation and robotics remains high and seemed to have more buzz this year than in previous years.

  • Digital Software — I had conversations with the large crop protection company teams and they all reinforced that they are continuing to invest in digital solutions, but their approaches vary.

    • For example, Syngenta continues to emphasize digital tools as augmentative to their crop protection/seed products, a view I have long been biased towards. Whereas xarvio has went a different route, optimistic that they can create independent revenue streams from their digital system. It will be interesting to see how these different strategies play out over time, especially considering the ever increasing generic threats, the increase in precision technology and a farmers perception of bias.

  • RegenAg — There continues to be emphasis on “regenerative ag” from startups and incumbents. Investing in regenerative or enabling it, which seems essentially code for doing more with less (aka the foundation of any technology that has been commercialized in ag) or having a biological or natural bent to it. Both good things, but a soil sensor, for example, is as much a tool for “conventional agriculture” as it is “regenerative agriculture.”

Other anecdotal comments:

  • As someone that has actively scavenged for news and headlines for more than 5 years: Typically the week around World Agritech is full of announcements from partnerships, to raises, to new products…this year was much slower than previous years.

  • The feedback on the panel sessions was the same as previous years: high level with little specificity or depth and few novel insights for those that spend their day-to-day working in the industry. I think most individuals on these panels DO have unique points of view and insight, but given they are representing their respective organizations, they generally stick to commentary that is approved through corporate communications, so I do not fault the panelists— though it brings up the conference business model. The events financial success is predicated sponsors, and sponsors tend to get panel spots for their team members. Seeing more contrarian takes would increase the value of the conference, in my opinion. That might be wishful thinking though.

    • I think the other challenge is the nature of having broad panel topics like “How Can AI Transform Regenerative Agriculture” or “Food System Resilience: Setting Strategic Priorities in Times of Change” — the topics aren’t constrained enough to get deep, and generally have a breadth of experience across areas, which doesn’t usually allow for meaningful conversation amongst panelists because they are talking about different areas. A level of disagreement or friction between points of view would benefit the audience.

  • The event remains one of the best networking opportunities for those interested in agricultural technology— it presents an unparalleled opportunity to connect with individuals from around the world, whether they are start-up founders, investors or senior leadership from the most influential agribusinesses.

Over the last month, I have read dozens of earnings call transcripts along with quarterly fertilizer company results, working to identify trends and key takeaways across the segment.

The below report is an aggregation of those materials and includes:

  1. one financial comparison chart of major fertilizer companies

  2. an overview of major fertilizer segments:

    a. Potash

    b. Phosphate

    c. Nitrogen

    d. Tariffs and Geopolitics

    e. Specialty Fertilizer and Biologicals

  3. Notable quotes from executives

  4. Overview of the following businesses FY 2024 and 2025 Outlook:

    a. Nutrien

    b. Yara

    c. CF Industries

    d. ICL

    e. Mosaic

FY 2024 Financial KPI Comparison for Fertilizer Businesses

Was this email forwarded to you? Join more than 20,000 of the sharpest minds in agribusiness and never miss an edition— subscribe to Upstream Ag Insights today:

Potash

The global potash market remains tight, reflecting both strong demand and potential supply constraints. Limited capacity additions and operational challenges are expected to contribute to this tightness. In North America, prices are rising, driven by robust demand. Geopolitical factors, including potential tariffs, introduce uncertainty but are not expected to cause major demand destruction. Sanctions on Belarus and the resolution of the war in Ukraine are also unlikely to significantly impact global supply.

Phosphate

The phosphate market remains tight, with strong demand and limited new supply expected in the coming years. Prices remain above historical levels, driven by ongoing Chinese export restrictions and increased phosphate use in other areas, like battery production. U.S. production was disrupted by hurricanes. With supply constraints persisting, phosphate prices and margins for manufacturers are expected to remain elevated compared to historical norms.

Nitrogen

The nitrogen market is expected to remain tight in 2025 due to low inventory levels in North America, reduced European production, and strong demand, particularly from India. Limited urea capacity additions and a potential Indian tender could further tighten supply. North American producers, especially those with low-cost gas assets, are well-positioned, though rising natural gas prices pose a cost challenge. Yara anticipates higher fertilizer prices in early 2025, supported by strong demand recovery, but also expects significantly higher input costs, particularly in the first half of the year.

For a full breakdown on tariff commentary from fertilizer company executives, a look at biological and specialty product segment business growth, including Mosaic BioSciences growth, MicroEssentials growth and investment, Nutrien biological acres and growth expectations over the next 5 years, along with full-year financial breakdowns of Nutrien, Mosaic, Yara, ICL and CF Industries, become an Upstream Ag Professional member:

Looking to add agronomy to your tech stack?

CropX’s global platform offers the most complete toolkit of science-backed sensors, software, and AI models to enable precision agronomy at scale for your growers & agronomists.

  • Unify all your farm, field, crop, machine, satellite and sensor data in one place

  • Make data-driven decisions about irrigation, nutrition and disease

  • Track your crop performance, farming activities and sustainability practices

Join leading companies like PepsiCo, Sumitomo, and NEC using CropX to optimize agronomic decisions and manage farming operations.  

Learn more about CropX:

There are a number of interesting aspects to tackle from this article.

The first is this quote:

On top of reduced spray rates while delivering effective weed control, Crissinger says they are positioning the technology as a way farmers can reinvest in their farm.

I agree with that take, which is part of what has driven my view around crop input usage increasing due to these precision systems.

There is also a need to think about what other outcomes become possible when a farmer uses these systems: saving herbicide is only one outcome.

When a sprayer is equipped with cameras that are constantly acquiring information about the crops and field, nozzle on/off systems and multiple liquid tanks there becomes an opportunity to ask, what else can be done? Not only agronomically, but from an operational perspective, too. In other words, the data input increases which increases the potential to deliver other beneficial outcomes.

Precision spray solutions will become an entire knowledge acquisition tool about the farm, plus enablers of better managing a field— whether that’s with nutrients, growth regulators, fungicides or biostimulants, or seeding rates and variety decisions based on stand counts and survivability, tillage decisions systems and more.

The agribusinesses that can apply systems thinking surrounding precision spraying solutions and their experience with them are better positioned to win.

Systems thinking also requires some creativity, too.

That leads to this quote from the article:

“As far as technology and agriculture, it typically doesn’t go backwards. It typically only goes forward,” he says. “We expect over time that more and more of our customers will continue to adopt selective spraying technology. As long as we have demand from the people that we do custom spraying for, we’ll have some version of selective spraying technology, whichever makes the most sense according to that demand.”

The ag industry is changing.

I think a competitive advantage for retailers, and all agribusinesses, is how decisively they navigate the technology landscape—whether for their customers or their staff internally.

The red queen effect is a valuable concept from evolutionary biology to consider in the context of agribusiness, specifically in the context of technological progress.

For more on the Red Queen Effect, Complement Disruption in Crop Inputs, Accelerating Returns, and Business Model Creativity, become an Upstream Ag Professional member today:

The Precision Revolution: Foundations of Precision Spraying in Agriculture - Upstream Ag

Over the last 6 months Upstream Ag Insights and my friends at the AgTech Collective dove deeply into the precision spraying segment to create the definitive guide on what’s happening in the precision spraying segment— delivering insider intelligence that helps you understand what is happening in the realm of Precision Spraying.

If you’re in agribusiness—whether a crop input manufacturer, input retailer, agtech company, OEM, dealer, investor, or farmer— understanding where this market is headed is crucial for your business.

What You Get Inside This Exclusive Report

  • Types of Precision Spraying – The key systems, approaches, and how they compare.

  • Challenges with Precision Spraying – The real hurdles to adoption (and what must be solved for mass adoption).

  • Technical Deep Dive – A breakdown of how these systems work, from camera sensors to AI-driven targeting.

  • Leading Companies & Their Innovations – Coverage of more than 30 key players in the space, their technology, and competitive positioning, including the likes of John Deere, AGCO, CNH Industrial, Greeneye, Solinftec, ONE Smart Spray and many more.

  • Market Adoption by Region – Who is embracing it? Where is it lagging? What’s driving growth?

  • Implications for Crop Input Manufacturers & Retailers – How the technology might shift product demand, application strategies, and margins.

  • The Ecosystem of Ancillary Companies – The companies adjacent to precision spraying entities.

AgPlenus employs an AI-based computational platform to discover novel modes of action that can target specific pests or diseases.

The company recently announced a new mode of action active against Zymoseptoria tritici, the fungal pathogen responsible for Septoria tritici blotch that impacts wheat crops, particularly in Europe.

AgPlenus is a subsidiary of Evogene and an interesting company worth looking more at.

Evogene is a public entity, founded in 1999 as a division of Compugen and then spun off in 2002. Today, Evogene has five subsidiaries and three artificial intelligence engines driven by what they call a “computational predictive biology” platform, or CPB Platform.

The CPB platform is used for product discovery and development, utilizing comprehensive computational biology to increase the effectiveness of finding suitable molecules while reducing the time and cost of product development.

Evogene tailored the platform to have three separate focuses:

  1. Microboost AI - supports the discovery and development of microbe-based products.

  2. ChemPass AI - supports products based on genetic elements

  3. GeneRator AI - supports genomic understanding and gene identification

Evogene's approach is to establish a product development ecosystem around each tech engine, through two business structures:

  1. Create independent subsidiaries, focusing on specific life science market segments with a license to use Evogene’s tech engines for product development

  2. Joint development with leading companies for defined products utilizing Evogene’s tech-engines. Typically, the partner leads later-stage development and product commercialization.

Of Evogene’s five subsidiaries, four are agriculture-related, with two being the most relevant for North American agribusiness professionals looking at traditional commodity row-crops:

  1. Lavie Bio — Lavie Bio is dedicated to developing next-generation biological products. It uses Evogene’s MicroBoost AI tech engine for its developments.

  2. AgPlenus — This subsidiary is focused on discovering innovative crop protection products, such as herbicides, insecticides, and fungicides. AgPlenus leverages the ChemPass AI tech engine to identify small molecules and novel target proteins for the development of new pesticides.

AgPlenus’s ChemPass system brings together a novel discovery approach that is based on three areas:

  • Protein Target Selection - Target Selector, Evolve, Target Validation

  • Small Molecule Identification - Point Hit, in-vitro and in-vivo screening

  • Small Molecule Optimization - Active Search, De novo SAR, Tox and Ag Models, Pesticide similarity, Greenhouse and field studies

Ultimately leading to compounds for development when/if found.

For more on their target based approach and how it works and their partnership with Bayer along with an overview of their pipeline, become an Upstream Ag Professional member today:

5. M&As in 2024 Biological Industry: Empowering Industry Upgrading and Reshaping - Agro Pages

Acquisitions from 2024:

  • Huma® acquired Gro-Power

  • Lesaffre acquired Altar

  • Certis Biologicals acquired key microbial assets

  • Ginkgo Bioworks acquired AgBiome’s genetic platform assets

  • ICL acquired Nitro 1000

  • Andermatt Group made acquisitions to strengthen global market presence

  • Eléphant Vert expanded its portfolio through acquisition of BIO3G

  • MustGrow Biological acquired NexusBioAg

  • Nutrien Ag Solutions acquired biocontrol assets from Suncor

For more on the dynamics within the ag bio space among all of the largest crop protection and fertilizer companies, as an Upstream Ag Professional member you can access The Rise of Biologicals and Specialty Fertilizers Report in the Professional Report Hub here.

JP Morgan had its industrials conference last week and Morgan Stanley had its Technology Conference the week before that. AGCO was at both sharing a few interesting comments.

Their participation in these events comes at a time when they have been battling challenges internally— primarily based on challenges with their PTx Trimble business.

Last month, I covered the $354 million impairment charge to PTx Trimble.

Essentially, the near-term outlook for the business unit deteriorated relative to prior assumptions given the market dynamics leading to lower penetration than expected of PTx Trimble products. This led to downward revisions of AGCOs forecasted earnings and a divergence from the original target which resulted in the impairment charge.

AGCO spent $2 billion to acquire Trimble in 2023, and took a $354 impairment charge less than a year after the close of the deal, an unexpected write-off of ~17% of the price tag.

Their largest investor was not happy about the situation.

Tractors and Farm Equipment Limited has a 16.3% stake in AGCO and made a release in February that stated:

PTx Senior Vice President and General Manager Seth Crawford has recently been removed from AGCO’s website, deepening concerns about a venture that was pitched by management as a significant growth driver for the Company’s precision ag business.

For more on shareholders challenges, channel inventory dynamics, determining strategic acquisitions, tariff impact, how AGCO thinks about recurring revenue business models and more, become an Upstream Ag Professional member today:

The NVIDIA story wasn't really about one company's stock price. It was about how our assumptions shape our view of the future. The market had built its narrative on a seemingly solid foundation: AI development requires massive computational power, which means more specialized chips, in bigger data centers. And all of this meant that NVIDIA's dominance would continue to grow.

But when that assumption wavered, when DeekSeek showed seemingly impossible results from such minimal GPU capacity, it provoked a question around whether AI's future really demanded ever-expanding GPU infrastructure - and the NVIDIA dominance narrative collapsed.

A trillion dollars of value vanished because an assumption about the future proved less certain than we thought. 

This is a great article that pairs well with The Magic Behind Bezos and Buffett: Things That Don’t Change.

I’d also add one book to Matthew’s recommended reading list in the article: Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. It challenges the way we think about risk, prediction, and the randomness that shapes our world, nudging us to recognize the limits of what we know.

Related: AgTech Risk and Resiliency as a Feature - The Pacesetter Pod

Non Ag Article

“All roads in managerial evaluation lead to capital allocation.”

The linked article is an excerpt from Michael Mauboussin’s Capital Allocation Evidence, Analytical Methods, and Assessment Guidance (full article worth reading).

Other Interesting Ag Articles