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Upstream Ag Insights - March 3rd 2025

Upstream Ag Insights - March 3rd 2025

Essential news and analysis for agribusiness leaders.

Shane Thomas
March 03, 2025 • Read Time: 19 minutes

Welcome to the 253rd edition of Upstream Ag Insights—the most trusted resource for strategic insights by over 20,000 agribusiness leaders. Below you’ll find the most critical industry news, strategic frameworks, and detailed analysis designed to give you a competitive edge and satiate your curiosity.

Upstream Ag Insights has transitioned to a new platform.

The reason is to deliver an improved subscriber experience and create more value through providing a “Hub” where all previous articles and editions can be searched, all images and resources can be found instantly and all industry reports live for simple access, along with more to come in the future.

To ensure all future editions come to your inbox and bypass spam filters, you can move this email to your inbox, or hit reply to this email and simply say “test.”

Index:

2025 Bank of America Agricultural and Industrial Conference Highlights and Analysis
a. Corteva
b. Nutrien
c. FMC
February 24th Agribusiness Earnings Results Summary
a. BASF
b. Mosaic
c. ICL Group
Why is now the right time for the ag input and ag retail industries to re-evaluate their go-to-market strategies? - Looking at strategy through a Coasian Lens
John Deere Announces New Technology Upgrades: See & Spray and Harvest Automation
Varda Evolves to Varda Foundation
Syngenta Acquires Novartis Biological Assets
Bushel updates payments platform to help farmers and agribusinesses strengthen financial management
Yamaha Motor Launches Yamaha Agriculture, Inc. to Deliver Automation and Digital Crop Management Solutions
Long Questions/Short Answers
Other Notable Ag Articles (10 this week)

This week’s edition of Upstream Ag Insights is brought to you in partnership with Farmers Edge:

The Hidden Advantage in Agribusiness: Cost Arbitrage

Cost arbitrage isn’t a new concept, but it’s underutilized in agriculture. By outsourcing technology services through Managed Services Providers, like Farmers Edge, agribusinesses can reduce tech spend by an average of 30% while also addressing capability gaps with top-tier talent. This isn’t about cutting corners—it’s about reallocating capital more effectively. Instead of sinking resources into maintaining in-house systems, businesses can focus on operational efficiency, innovation, and growth.

As margins tighten and tech complexity grows, cost arbitrage is becoming a critical lever for agribusinesses looking to stay ahead.

Get the full breakdown here:

New Report Coming on Wednesday: Foundations of Precision Spraying

Over the past six months, Upstream Ag Insights and the AgTech Collective have taken a deep dive into precision spraying, analyzing real-world adoption, challenges, technology, market and competitive landscape. This report provides insider intelligence and farmer led insights you won’t find anywhere else—critical for agribusiness professionals working in crop input manufacturing, ag retail, equipment, agtech startups, consulting and investors in the space who want to have a leading understanding of precision spraying and it’s range of implications on farmers, competitive dynamics and their business.

Inside the Report:

The Evolution of Precision Spraying – It’s history and why it’s gaining traction now.
Technology Breakdown – Systems, approaches, and real-world applications, including a look at the various types from offline, to online, to green-on-brown, to green-on-green.
Value & Challenges – What’s driving adoption, and what’s holding it back.
Key Players & Market Positioning and the Ecosystem – John Deere, AGCO, CNH Industrial, Greeneye, Solinftec, ONE Smart Spray and more. The report includes a look at over 30 companies directly and indirectly related to precision spraying.
Regional Adoption Trends – Where it’s taking off and why.
Impact on Input Manufacturers & Retailers – The business implications and strategic considerations for those not working directly in equipment or precision ag.

The report will be available for purchase from the new Upstream Ag Insights website on Wednesday, March 5th with an e-mail sent elaborating on what’s included, along with a sneak peak at the report and the link to purchase.

1. 2025 Bank of America Agricultural and Industrial Conference Highlights and Analysis - Upstream Ag Professional

I dive into key executive commentary and insights from FMC, Corteva, and Nutrien from the Bank of America Agriculture & Industrial Conference. These discussions offer a window into how major agribusiness leaders view market dynamics, innovation, and strategic priorities heading into 2025 and beyond.

The depth of commentary is unprecedented from the executives getting into more detail on strategy, focus and performance targets across all of the below including acquisition aspirations (Corteva), route to market insight (FMC, Corteva), acre treatment by biostimulant product (Nutrien) and a discussion on elevating premium fertilizer products at the ag retailer.

For all of this an more, become and Upstream Ag Professional member:

Corteva
a. M&A Priorities
b. Which agribusinesses balance sheets are better positioned for acquisitions?
c. Biological Route to Market and Revenue Streams
d. Trait Licensing Costs and Journey to Neutrality
e. Brevant Seed Ambitions
f. Gene Editing and Microbes
Nutrien
a. Biostimulants and Bionutrition 5 Year Growth Expectations
b. Nitrogen Fixing Products and Biostimulant Product Treatment
c. De-Commoditizing Fertilizer at the Retail Level
d. Ukraine and Potash / Nitrogen Pricing Dynamics
FMC
a. Rynaxypyr acerage by crop type
b. Diamide Cost Restructuring Timeline and Generic Comparison
c. New Product Growth Expectations
d. Plant Health and Biological Business
e. Can Publicly Traded Incumbents Evolve Their Route to Market?

2. February 24th Agribusiness Earnings Results Summary - Upstream Ag Professional

Bayer Crop Science releases their FY 2024 results next week. Next week the aggregate Crop Protection FY/Q4 2024 results summary will get published with key themes and notable takeaways from each of the major publicly traded crop protection manufacturers.

BASF
ICL Group
Mosaic

For the full highlights and analysis check out the link above.

A few highlights:

BASF:

In agricultural solutions, we are advancing as announced in September, and we are currently focusing on executing the legal separation and the implementation of a dedicated ERP system by 2027. In parallel with the support of financial advisors, our team is beginning to prepare for the IPO readiness, which is also targeted for 2027.

BASF Executive Team

BASF did experience some positive pricing in the last quarter, which was less on the crop protection side:

The positive price effect was predominantly on the seed side, so predominantly field crop seeds. But I'd say also in the herbicides, we had a positive price effect. So on the crop protection side, the mix picture, some price losses but also some price gains.

For more on Mosaic BioScience acres and targets for 2025, MicroEssentials margins and growth targets along with an overview of ICLs Growing Solutions (biologicals, specialty nutrinition) segment, become an Upstream Ag Professional member:

How Solid is Your AI Plan?

Are you targeting the right AI use cases to drive value in agriculture?
Have you quantified your ROI?
Should you build a custom platform or buy it off-the-shelf?
Will you rely on internal resources or outsource to a third party?
Is your data ready—and do you know where it will come from?
Do you have a clear plan to achieve your desired outcomes?

Headstorm can help.

Headstorm has the playbook and track record to answer these questions fast. Learn how we built AGpilot, our AI solution empowering agronomists and retailers to make smarter decisions.

With over 10 years of experience delivering mission-critical solutions for major agribusinesses, retailers, and lenders, Headstorm makes technology your unfair advantage.

3. Why is now the right time for the ag input and ag retail industries to re-evaluate their go-to-market strategies? - Kearney

The agriculture input supply chain is evolving.

Any strategic analysis must account for this evolution, ensuring that go-to-market strategies align with broader enterprise objectives rather than being viewed in isolation.

When looking at strategy in the realm of “go-to-market”, I would first apply the lens of what Ronald Coase talks about in The Nature of the Firm, an economics paper that explores why firms exist, how they function, and what determines their boundaries

Coasian lens helps explain what’s possible for go-to-markets as technology redefines firm boundaries by lowering transaction costs and enhancing coordination across the supply chain.

For a full look at how go-to-market and vertical integration are connected, what potential vertical integration could make sense and what technology can help enable, along with how go-to-market fits into the larger umbrella of strategy, become an Upstream Ag Professional member today:

Related: FOMO M&A - The Pacesetter Pod

4. John Deere Announces New Technology Upgrades: See & Spray and Harvest Automation - Successful Farming

John Deere announced several new product features and functionality this week. Two areas I wanted to highlight include See & Spray and combine technology.

See & Spray Select has historically been used to control weeds in fallow fields. New variable rate capabilities unlock significant opportunity for precise application, and product savings, in later-season fungicide, desiccant, pre-harvest passes and more. Farmers can now see the percentage of biomass each camera detects throughout the field. Each camera rates the amount of green biomass detected and varies the volume of product applied by percentage. Farmers then adjust how much product they wish to apply on an individual nozzle level based on the green biomass percentages, giving them the ability to apply product where it is most needed.

Deere has effectively given See & Spray the capability to adjust rates based on crop density and health— useful for variable rate Nitrogen, plant growth regulators, desiccants, fungicide and biostimulants. This reinforces that a sprayer equipped with cameras and VR capabilities can be an agronomic swiss army knife, delivering unique management capabilities to farmers that not only improve crop input efficiency, but deliver improved outcomes. For example, setting up VR for desiccant can improve dry down and harvest management. This capability adds value beyond soybean and corn and into the small-grain segment of the market, too.

Additionally, this only adds to what a farmer, and John Deere, knows about a crop. For example, John Deere illustrated at their 2024 Agronomy Summit that they can quantify exactly where weeds are. Now, they can further quantify crop health, which can be powerful when integrated with yield maps. Consider how this further grows in the future as John Deere integrates soil sensing technology to their equipment which delivers soil potential, crop health, as-applied and actual yield into a high resolution, integrated map. It could be very powerful.

Expanded Advanced Automation and Productivity Enhancements for Model Year 2026 Combines

Predictive Ground Speed Automation is being introduced with new combines and incorporates predictive inputs measuring crop variability ahead of the combine for controlling ground speed. Two factory-mounted cameras look ahead and measure crop height and stay in front of the cutter bar. Satellite views leverage the John Deere Operations Center™ to generate predictive yield maps based on midseason biomass results, leading to improved harvesting (eg: less harvest losses).

One cool update made possible by the cameras is weed detection sensing.

In addition to sensing crop height and mass, combine cab-mounted cameras used for predictive ground speed automation will now sense individual weed patches that are mixed in with the crop by detecting weed-like characteristics of plant shape and height. Depending on the weed density and operator-defined sensitivity, the combine will reduce ground speed as it harvests through these areas to reduce slugging and helping prevent reel or rotor wrapping.

These announcements further emphasize that companies like John Deere are uniquely situated to contribute as significantly to crop input management, and practices like integrated weed management, via their equipment and technology— the incremental data can give real insight into every acre plus the ability to manage it with precision tools and automation.

5. Varda Evolves to Varda Foundation - Linkedin

Varda AG is evolving into the Varda Foundation, a new non-profit dedicated to fostering transparency and collaboration across agri-food supply chains. This move ensures our digital services—Global FieldID® & SoilHive®—continue benefiting farmers, researchers, policy makers, and industry stakeholders, accelerating their adoption under a neutral entity

I have been skeptical of this effort since it was announced and Yara’s efforts in the tech area overall:

If we look at what makes most API businesses successful, it’s that they are “mission critical” to the day to day operation of their customers, yet in an area that is not core enough to do themselves as an organization.

That leads us to a chicken and egg scenario with Varda.

They are working to enable the connectivity across the value chain by unlocking the ID of a field and in order to make the ID valuable, we need the data for that ID (soil tests, satellite imagery/MRV capabilities etc) to also be associated with that ID and then for that data to be be able to unlock further value from downstream the value chain or from an adjacent area of the value chain (eg: financing). There aren’t many businesses in ag today where this is “mission critical”.

Upstream Ag Insights

Whether they are owned by Yara or a non-profit, that reality remains.

I am even more skeptical now as a non-profit. I tend to believe that profit motives drive positive outcomes. If Field ID is ever to be valuable concept, a company like Leaf Agriculture is better positioned to deliver on this than Varda as a non-profit.

6. Syngenta Acquires Novartis Biological Assets - Syngenta

Syngenta is significantly expanding its biologicals research and development capabilities. It announced that it has acquired the Novartis repository of natural compounds and genetic strains for agricultural use, while Novartis maintains exclusive rights to repository for pharmaceutical use. The transaction also includes transfer of the Novartis Natural Products and Biomolecular Chemistry team to Syngenta.

The effort for many companies seems to be to collect a vast amount of potential molecules and compounds and leverage tools and technology to be able to assess their potential for effectiveness and commercialization, such as through partners like these:

For an overview of how these companies and their technology, including machine learning, are applied to the world of crop protection and why it’s reevant to Syngenta’s acquisition of Novartis IP, and an overview of the 15+ companies that Syngenta is partnered with, invested in or acquired in the biological space, become an Upstream Ag Professional member:

7. Bushel updates payments platform to help farmers and agribusinesses strengthen financial management - Bushel

Jake Joranstaad, co-founder and CEO of Bushel, has talked about Bushel as a Super App, which I covered in Is a Super App Possible in North American Agriculture?

This initiative is a further step towards that, improving the value of their Wallet product by offering farmers interest and insurance for holding dollars within the Wallet account. This effort increases the incentive for farmers to utilize the Wallet product.

For a breakdown of Super App demands to be successful along with a look at what Bushel must do to get a fly wheel effect going to drive utilization of the Wallet, become an Upstream Ag Professional member today:

8. Yamaha Motor Launches Yamaha Agriculture, Inc. to Deliver Automation and Digital Crop Management Solutions - Business Wire

Yamaha Motor Co., Ltd. announced Yamaha Agriculture, a spin-out focused on farm automation.

The company aims to deliver autonomous equipment and AI-driven digital solutions to help specialty crop growers improve sustainability and profitability.

According to Yamaha’s chief strategy officer, Jim Aota, the launch is part of Yamaha’s global technology roadmap, emphasizing advanced energy management, intelligent systems, and software-driven solutions.

Yamaha Agriculture has acquired two startups previously backed by Yamaha Motor Ventures:

Robotics Plus – Developer of autonomous farm vehicles and equipment for tasks like spraying and weeding.
The Yield Technology Solutions – AI-powered crop insights platform leveraging sensors and analytics.

That worked out to half of their ag venture portfolio:

Nolan Paul will now become the CEO of Yamaha Agriculture, formerly heading Yamaha Motor Ventures.

The endeavor comes across as obscure, but Yamaha is in a very diverse array of industries; from musical instruments, to ATVs, boats and more.

The launch into agriculture would be peculiar for Yamaha no matter what, but given they have planted their beach head with companies that do not have any meaningful market penetration seems like it will be a difficult position to build from, unless Yamaha has other acquisitions planned in the coming months/years, which I have to speculate they do.

A plus for agtech start-ups: there is a potential new acquirer.

Non-Ag Article

9. Long Questions/Short Answers - Not Boring

We all think what we want is answers. We don’t, actually. Answers are dead things. Questions are animating. What we want is great questions.

By the time a question gets its answer, all of the juice has been squeezed. The answer is the pulp and pith. Answers are static things. Questions are kinetic.

Packy McCormick