Upstream Ag Insights - May 5th 2025

Essential news and analysis for agribusiness leaders.

Author

Shane Thomas
May 05, 2025 • Read Time: 15 minutes

Welcome to the 261st edition of Upstream Ag Insights— the most trusted resource for strategic insights by over 20,000 agribusiness leaders. 

Below you’ll find critical industry news, strategic frameworks, and detailed analysis designed to give you a competitive edge and satiate your curiosity.

Thank you for being an Upstream Ag Insights subscriber!

Index

  1. Mindware: 25 General Thinking Principles for Agribusiness Professionals

  2. Agribusiness Q1 2025 Results: FMC, Syngenta, BASF, CNH Industrial and AGCO

  3. How Will Ag Technology Impact the Growth of Biologicals?

  4. Fertilizer Outlook from Rabobank

  5. U.S. to impose duties on 2,4-D imports from China and India

  6. Evolutions or Revolutions: R&D in Agriculture + Upstream Ag Insights R&D Comparison Chart

  7. Upstream Ag Research Report Library

  8. Lego Manufacturing

  9. Other Interesting Ag Article (12 this week)

This week’s edition of Upstream Ag Insights is brought to you in partnership with Cultiva:

Bridging Environmental Stress and Yields: Helping Today’s Orchards Adapt to Tomorrow’s Climate

Extreme weather events like severe drought, heat waves and heavy rainfall are becoming the new normal for fruit growers. These environmental extremes don’t just impact yield and quality; they threaten the long-term growth and profitability of orchards and groves.

Cultiva is helping growers build resilience against climate volatility by reducing the impact of environmental stress at every growth stage. Parka® , a leading cuticle supplement, strengthens the plant’s tolerance to environmental stress and enhances physiological processes that support plant health, leading to improved yields and growth potential.

By investing in cuticle health, growers can protect fruit quality, improve packout rates, and sustain orchard productivity despite unpredictable conditions.

As climate challenges intensify, proactive stress management is key to maintaining high-quality yields. See how Cultiva is helping growers future-proof their orchards.

*This article is available to all Upstream Ag Insights subscribers

Since 2020, I have published an annual “professionals tips” article for college grads entering the ag industry, aimed at enhancing their ability to get up to speed and improve professionally.

One of the most commonly cited pieces of feedback I received around it was that it shouldn’t be emphasized to just new grads, but all agribusiness professionals.

Taking that into account, the last three years I have thought about it beyond new grads towards agribusiness professionals of all experience levels.

Some of these were stumbled on myself, others are borrowed from reading and listening to other much more experienced individuals.

AI Armour

This year these concepts are especially important to call out as we see AI increase in relevance.

Today, execution and action is increasingly being commoditized— automated by AI or handled by systems which means the real edge lies not in simply doing, but in knowing the most high leverage action to take.

When everyone has access to the same tools, technologies, and playbooks, advantage shifts to those who can think clearly, prioritize wisely, and act with conviction.

That means leaders who develop discernment and improved judgement — the ability to cut through noise, choose the right path, and anticipate second and third order consequences, will outperform those who simply move faster or “do more.”

I hope highlighting these concepts can help individuals build better judgement, make higher-quality decisions, and lead with clarity in a world full of complexity.

These 25 examples have been a positive reminder for me and while I won’t claim the principles to be novel for industry veterans, I think they can be useful for professional and personal development.

For an expansion on each of the 25 concepts, check out the link above.

a. FMC Q1 2025

  • Revenue declined 14% YoY (10% organically) to $791 million, with EBITDA down 25%.

b. Syngenta Group Q1 2025

  • Despite flat sales of $7.3 billion (-1% YoY), EBITDA rose 18% (26% CER), with a 3.2-point margin improvement to 19.9%.

c. BASF Q1 2025

  • Agricultural Solutions revenue dropped 7.9% year-over-year to $3.2 billion, driven by a 5.6% decline in volumes due to demand being pulled into Q4 2024—especially for fungicides and seeds (BASF had a strong Q4 24). Lower prices and negative currency impacts further pressured results, with EBITDA before special items falling 15%.

CNH Industrial Q1 2025

  • Agriculture segment net sales fell 23% to $2.58 billion, with adjusted EBIT down 64% to $139 million and margins halving to 5.4%

e. AGCO Q1 2025

  • Revenues down 30% in the quarter with net sales of $2.1 billion.

I spent 18 hours consuming and analyzing the Q1 results from FMC, Syngenta, BASF, CNH, and AGCO (along with other related companies like Stepan, Marubeni, Titan Machinery and Planet Labs) to find the details agribusiness leaders need to know for understanding how FMC, BASF, Syngenta, CNH and AGCO are managing tariffs, a down cycle, and how they are planning to grow their businesses in 2025 and beyond. Upstream Ag Professional members get full access to executive commentary, distilled key takeaways from each groups results and images that help them become even more effective in their roles. Upgrade your subscription today to stay ahead:

Your Unfair Advantage in Ag Retail 

AGpilot is an app that utilizes Gen AI to seamlessly integrate grower-advisor interactions with vast troves of both external and internal data. Leveraging sources such as Microsoft's ADMA solution for external data, and proprietary data repositories developed by ag retailers, AGpilot transforms raw information into actionable insights in real-time. By automating research tasks and consolidating relevant data, AGpilot empowers advisors to perform their duties more efficiently and effectively. 

AGpilot enables your organization to: 

  • Increase Revenue: Acquire more customers, expand customer share, and avoid displacement. 

  • Improve Productivity: Quickly view customer info, data, and tailored insights across systems. 

  • Reduce Attrition: Provide best-in-class tools to improve agronomist value, income, and relationships. 

Transform your advisors into loyal, productive, and trusted advisors at scale with AGpilot. 

The above article goes through various bio-based company executives views of how bio-based products and other agtech will converge. There are many great comments that are worth checking out.

The future of value-added fertilizers (VAF’s which include biologicals, according to the below report ~75% of biologicals are applied within a fertilizer) is not just about trying to get more product broadly and randomly applied to every field — it's about integrating plant science, equipment technology, formulation technology and data layers to create better outcomes through a convergence of technologies and capabilities.

Built from the recent DunhamTrimmer 2024 Global Value-Added Fertilizer Report analysis, I did a deep dive into the convergence of various technologies with biologicals, what that might look like and highlighting examples from within the industry. Plus, an exclusive Upstream Ag Professional image of the bio-based challenges that need to be overcome for long-term success.

For the full breakdown, become an Upstream Ag Professional member today:

4. Fertilizer Outlook from Rabobank - Rabobank

This is a good overview from Rabobank on fertilizer dynamics.

Highlights on each macronutrient:

Nitrogen

The global nitrogen fertilizer market, particularly urea, is expected to become less tight in the coming months following a period of volatility driven by Indian tender activity and shifting global trade flows.

In 2024, India reduced urea imports by approximately 24% due to increased domestic production, contributing to a small 0.5% global decline in nitrogen imports. At the same time, global production rose 2.1% year-over-year, supported by a ~15% drop in European natural gas prices.

In the U.S., urea imports increased by 14% in January 2025 compared to the prior year, likely due to expanded corn planting. China, which curtailed nitrogen exports in 2024, is expected to return to the global market after spring applications, potentially alleviating supply pressures.

Despite a 13% price increase in Q1 2025, further urea price hikes are not anticipated.

However, Rabobank's nitrogen affordability index has turned negative, signaling that rising costs are increasingly tougher on farmer margins.

Phosphorous

Phosphate fertilizer prices (MAP and DAP) are expected to remain well above the historical average throughout 2025, with Q1 prices roughly 27% higher than the 10-year average.

This is driven by rising production costs and tight global supply, compounded by elevated prices of key inputs—sulfur (+22%), sulfuric acid (+35%), and phosphoric acid (+25%).

China's continued halt on phosphate exports to prioritize its domestic market is limiting global availability and supporting higher prices. Rabobank forecasts demand growth to be constrained due to reduced affordability, especially in price-sensitive regions.

The phosphate affordability index has remained negative for 10 consecutive months and is projected to stay in negative territory through at least August 2025, potentially breaking records for sustained unaffordability and further reducingl demand.

Potash

Rabobank expects the global potash market to remain stable and positive in 2025, reinforced by strong supply and good affordability.

Despite geopolitical dynamics, the potash market has remained steady, with 2024 prices trading well below historical averages. U.S. net imports reached 9.5 million metric tons in 2024 (+6% YoY), with 86% sourced from Canada. These volumes were likely already imported, meaning no tariff issues for 2025.

Tariffs on Israeli and German potash may influence non-Canadian supplies, while the absence of tariffs on Russian potash creates potential for increased U.S. imports. Brazil also increased imports by 4% in 2024, taking advantage of the favorable pricing. Rabobank’s affordability index confirms continued affordability through at least August 2025, supporting strong demand and market stability.

Other Interesting Images

Corteva Agriscience was harmed by imports of the herbicide 2,4-D and duties will be placed on imports of the chemical from China and India, the U.S. International Trade Commission ruled in its final phase of antidumping and countervailing duty investigations.

US Import values from India & China according to ITC Website

For a look at what all is converging to make 2026 a challenging crop protection year, become an Upstream Ag Professional member today:

Ariel Patton and Dan Northrup did a great job breaking down the fundamentals of R&D, including a nice framework for thinking about and understanding the R&D cycle.

I decided to combine the major crop protection & seed, fertilizer and equipment manufacturers together into one chart comparing their R&D and miscellaneous innovation activities:

It’s not common to compare across industry segments, and isn’t something I will be making a habit of (they aren’t investing in the same types of technology, some have other segments contributing etc.) but I think it’s notable to see how much John Deere and Bayer Crop Science invest relative to their peers. It’s also telling to look at the fertilizer manufacturers and see how little they invest in R&D relative to other industry players.

Related: Are Ag Inputs More like Wine or Diamonds? - Dan Northrup Guest Post in Upstream Ag Insights

Ready to go beyond the noise and into the insights that actually move markets?

The Upstream Ag Research Report Library is where serious agribusiness professionals get ahead.

At the link above, you’ll find exclusive deep dives reports on:

  • Major fertilizer and crop protection players biological strategies

  • The Precision Spraying market and competitive landscape

  • Financial intelligence on 12 of the industry’s most influential organizations, including dashboards of financials specifically for agribusiness professionals.

If you make decisions in ag retail, crop input manufacturing, investment, or strategy—this is where you equip yourself to be the best.

Non Ag Article

The article is a really interesting look at LEGO, which has a wonderful turn around story. Their manufacturing process is really incredible.

Bonus: After the Lego post, there is a funny breakdown of how the City of New York paid McKinsey $4 million to do an assessment on whether garbage bins are better than letting garbage sit on the street.

Other Interesting Ag Articles

Nitrogen Fixing Bacteria - BioConsortia