Upstream Ag Insights - November 11th 2024

Essential news and analysis for agribusiness leaders.

November 11, 2024 • Read Time: 21 minutes

Welcome to the forefront of agricultural strategy and innovation with the 240th edition of Upstream Ag Insights, where over 18,700 agribusiness leaders start their week discovering crucial industry news and learning about the latest innovations and business strategies shaping the future of agriculture.

With curation and analysis from Shane Thomas, each edition delivers insights and analysis crafted for the practical agriculture professional, empowering you to be among the best informed in the industry.

Whether you're a new subscriber or this email was forwarded to you, Upstream’s field-tested frameworks and in-depth examinations equip you with the knowledge and systems to seize opportunities and grow in your business and career.

Index

  1. Tech Companies, AI Initiatives and Agribusiness Implications

  2. Can there be a Super App in North American Agriculture?

  3. Q3 2024 Agribusiness Earnings Results Week of November 4th to November 8th

  4. Carbon Robotics Sues Laudando & Associates Over Alleged Laser Weeding Patent Infringement

  5. Light as an Agronomic Weapon

  6. Tessenderlo Kerley Inc. Acquires Tiger-Sul Products, LLC

  7. An Audience of One: The Power of Persona

  8. New Biological Report and Playbook

  9. Read More Books

  10. Other Interesting Ag Articles (5 this week)

This week’s edition of Upstream Ag Insights is brought to you in partnership with Headstorm

Your Unfair Advantage in Precision Agriculture 

AGpilot is an app that utilizes Gen AI to seamlessly integrate grower-advisor interactions with vast troves of both external and internal data. Leveraging sources such as Microsoft's ADMA solution for external data, and proprietary data repositories developed by ag retailers, AGpilot transforms raw information into actionable insights in real-time. By automating research tasks and consolidating relevant data, AGpilot empowers advisors to perform their duties more efficiently and effectively.   

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I believe it is important to understand what is occurring within the largest enabling technology companies (companies that agribusinesses use in their own operations, or can learn from) surrounding artificial intelligence to glean deeper insights into what the implications might be in the short, medium and long term for agriculture and for agribusiness professionals.

Much like I do to understand the direction of the agriculture industry, I turned to earnings results, earnings call transcripts and keynote presentations for pieces of information and context that could signal a trend or be important in assessing what comes next.

Companies Highlighted

  • Apple

  • Amazon

  • Alphabet

  • Meta

  • Microsoft

  • Salesforce

  • ServiceNow

A Few Interesting Takeaways

  1. Cost reduction and Speed in LLM capabilities

Google:

In 18 months, we reduced cost by more than 90% for these queries through hardware, engineering and technical breakthroughs while doubling the size of our custom Gemini model.

Today, more than 1/4 of all new code at Google is generated by AI, then reviewed and accepted by engineers.

  1. Improved Conversion Using AI

From Meta (Facebook):

More than a million advertisers used our Gen AI tools to create more than 15 million ads in the last month and we estimate that businesses using image generation are seeing a 7% increase in conversions and we believe that there's a lot more upside here.

  1. Integration of AI Into CRMs and ERPs growing rapidly

From Microsoft:

Dynamics 365 Copilot is being widely used for CRM and ERP needs, with “monthly active users of Copilot across our CRM and ERP portfolio increased over 60% quarter-over-quarter.”

In the full Upstream Ag Professional article, you’ll find notable quotes, facts and figures surrounding artificial intelligence initiatives from the major technology and AI players along with additional commentary from me (where applicable) on what the potential implication might be for agribusiness professionals and enterprises— including what agtech companies are a fit to leverage certain aspects.

An image of some of the companies in agriculture that have announced genAI initiatives:

Companies covered in the above link:

  • Corteva

  • Nutrien

  • CNH Industrial

  • AGCO

  • Valmont

  • Lavoro

  • Novonesis

  • CHS

Once all companies have reported their earnings there will be an aggregated report completed by agribusiness segment:

  1. Crop Protection and Seed Companies

  2. Fertilizer Manufacturers

  3. Equipment Manufacturers

Each report will include macro trends and themes, along with useful comparison charts and images.

A few interesting comments from this week’s results:

Nutrien

  • “We ended the third quarter with crop protection inventory down 13% compared to the prior year, as we focus on tightly managing working capital levels.” - President of Retail, Jeff Tarsi

Corteva

  • EVP of Crop Protection Robert King:

I'll start with biologicals. We're 15 months into the acquisition, and this business continues to perform very well. The portfolio is serving as a very good complement to our synthetics business. And it's driving solutions on the farm that we're able to offer to the farmer that's unique to us. From an overall for 2024, we're expecting biologicals to be up double digit EBITDA growth for the year.

AGCO

  • AGCO on production:

Despite the significant production cut in quarter three 2024, which was the largest year-over-year AGCO cut has ever taken in over a decade, the market conditions have made the outlook more challenging. Our production decreased in the third quarter by approximately 35%, which was 19% more than we anticipated in our third quarter guidance.

In the full Upstream Ag Professional overview there are structured highlights of all key financial figures geared for agribusiness professionals and multiple quotes and comments from company executives that share insight into the current and future business and industry dynamics, like AGCO autonomy business models, trends in Nutrien proprietary product sales, a future facing biological business assessment of Corteva and much more:

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This week my friend Rhishi Pethe launched Software is Feeding the World Interview series and it was a good first interview, bringing on one of the most visionary founders in agtech, Jake Joraanstad, CEO of Bushel.

There are several useful insights in the interview that make it worth checking out, but I want to focus on one specific comment from Jake:

What I think is interesting, I think a trend that's going to be happening is what is agriculture's super app? There is not a super app for agriculture.

What's the farmer's super app that every farmer pretty much has and needs to have, particularly in the US?

That's going to be a trend that has happened in consumers in all these different parts of the consumer industry. I think agriculture is going to have a moment like that too. The question is how far are we from it.

My answer to his last question? Very far. But it’s worth breaking it down.

What is a Super App?

The concept of the “Super App” was first introduced by BlackBerry founder Mike Laziridis in his 2010 Mobile World Congress address.

He described Super Apps as platforms that create seamless, integrated experiences, blending core applications into a single, intuitive interface that becomes a natural part of daily life.

Originally, Lazaridis envisioned BlackBerry as the Super App, a one-stop solution for essential needs and routines.

This is the core foundation of Super Apps: they are built around convenience—providing a central hub where users can access most of what they need with ease, all in one place.

Initially, it needs to start as a specialized, single-purpose app (e.g., messaging) but evolves into a platform offering diverse services such as e-commerce, social networking, transportation, food delivery, financial services, and more.

Users engage with one app for almost every part of their digital life, making it an essential part of daily routine. WeChat (China), and other Super Apps are essentially the internet in their respective home countries. Because they own the digital infrastructure, they’re able to build their own services on top or extract rent from the companies that do.

Sounds great, right?

But they’re also extremely hard to build, because they’re essentially marketplaces.

Success requires liquidity and network effects— there need to be enough entities that accept the app integrations and leverage them.

Origins of Super Apps

Super apps gained popularity in Asia, especially with WeChat and AliPay in China. In many cases, these apps arose from unique market dynamics and constraints.

Become an Upstream Ag Professional member and get the full deep dive analysis that sets the stage by breaking down what made Super Apps, like WeChat, successful in the first place and applying that lens to what needs to happen in North American agriculture to see such a concept arise, looking at the potential through the lens of Bushel becoming the Super App and asking the question if other companies are better positioned:

4. Carbon Robotics Sues Laudando & Associates - Upstream Ag Professional

Disclosure: I am not a lawyer and have no training in the profession of law. I did purchase the lawsuit materials and seek out a lawyer to help decipher the patent materials, but solely with the aim to help other interested industry parties have a base level understanding of what the accusations are.

Index

  1. Background on Lawsuit and Laudando & Associates

  2. Intellectual Property

  3. Overview of Carbon Robotics

  4. Overview of the Lawsuit

  5. Core Elements of Carbon Robotics’ Patent

  6. Accusations Against Laudando & Associates

  7. L&A System

  8. Patent Validity?

    1. Laser “Mode of Actions”?

  9. How Does Carbon Robotics Patent Compare to Other Electric Weeders?

    1. Verdant Robotics

  10. Final Thoughts

Below is an excerpt of the whole overview. The full Upstream Ag Professional article can be found at the link above.

Overview of Carbon Robotics

Carbon Robotics is an agtech company specializing in precision weeding solutions through advanced laser technology.

Founded in 2018, Carbon Robotics has raised $157 million to develop and distribute the LaserWeeder™, a tractor-mounted system that uses AI-driven computer vision to detect and target weeds. The machine directs lasers to eliminate weeds without disturbing crops or soil, reducing the need for herbicides.

Overview of the Lawsuit

In the lawsuit, Carbon Robotics claims that Laudando & Associates (L&A) has infringed on its patented technology, specifically detailed in the ‘752 and ‘547 patents. Here’s a breakdown of the core elements of Carbon Robotics' patent and what they are alleging against L&A:

Core Elements of Carbon Robotics’ Patent

The patent describes many components within the Carbon Robotics system itself:

  • Optical Control System — Uses an emitter (laser) and a series of optical elements, including mirrors and reflective elements, that direct the laser beam to specific target locations. The laser beam can be infrared, ultraviolet, or visible, and it’s capable of variable intensities.

  • Targeting System with Multiple Cameras — The system includes both a prediction camera (wide-angle view to spot weeds) and a targeting camera (closer view for precision targeting).

  • Actuators and Reflective Elements — These are controlled by motors and rotate to deflect the laser path toward the weed. This control enables fine adjustments to the beam’s angle, ensuring it aligns precisely with the weed target.

  • Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU) — Tracks motion, acceleration, and orientation of the system, allowing for adjustments if the machine is moving or if the laser beam needs stabilizing.

  • Processing Unit — Uses machine learning (neural network) to differentiate between weeds and crops. The neural network analyzes images from the prediction camera to recognize weeds. Once identified, the system uses the targeting module and initiates the laser beam directed towards the weed.

These all work to make an integrated system.

Targeting System for Weed Eradication

The system works such as:

  1. The camera captures images of the surface, detecting weeds among crops.

  2. The computing system processes images from the camera, identifies weeds, aligns the laser, and directs the beam to target and kill the weeds.

  3. The laser emits a precise beam toward identified weeds.

Operational Sequence

  1. The system receives an image from the camera that includes a weed and identifies the specific region containing the weed.

  2. The computing system then calculates the weed’s location and aligns the laser’s path accordingly.

  3. The system triggers the emitter to fire at the weed, ensuring precise targeting to avoid damaging crops.

  4. The patent includes technology that adjusts for any movement of the camera or machine, predicting weed locations between frames to maintain accuracy even when the equipment is in motion.

The Carbon Robotics patent is focused on the unique integration of these separate components and the operational sequence.

Accusations Against Laudando & Associates

Carbon Robotics alleges that L&A’s “L&Aser Module,” announced in September 2023, and its autonomous weeding system infringe on their patent by replicating these essential elements.

For the full overview I breakdown Carbon Robotics Patents, the accusations against Laudando & Associates, consider the patent viability, the concept of laser “mode of action” and the implication if Carbon Robotics does, or doesn’t win:

5. Light as an Agronomic Weapon: Light Stimulation Boosts Seed Germination - Precision Farming Dealer

Light is a compelling tool in agronomy— wielding potential for crop protection and crop stimulation.

Two weeks ago I asked whether would see a “light based crop protection company” in the context of Carbon Robotics.

In 2022, I covered The Weed Seed Destroyer, a combine bolt-on unit utilizing mild warming and intense Blue LED rays to target weed seed as it passes with the chaff flow during harvest.

Light can be harmful, but it can also be beneficial for seeds.

Photomorphogenesis is how seeds and plants respond to specific light waves and regulate their growth and development in response to light.

Light can trigger various physiological and morphological changes in plants through their photoreceptors. When specific groups of plant photoreceptors absorb a particular light, it goes through a complex process that activates signaling components, ultimately leading to changes in gene expression and plant physiology. This change in gene expression can stimulate increased root growth, earlier flowering, quality changes (e.g., protein levels in grains), or even pest tolerance, for example.

For the full overview of BioLumic and their potential using light treatment technology, become an Upstream Ag Professional member:

Tessenderlo Kerley is pleased to announce that it has acquired Tiger-Sul Products, LLC, a North American focused provider of sulfur-based fertilizer products, from Platte River Equity. The acquisition closed on November 6, 2024.

The acquisition strengthens Tessenderlo Kerley’s specialty fertilizer portfolio as Tessenderlo Kerley looks to provide a better crop yield, more control for farmers. Tiger-Sul will continue to operate under its brand names.

Tiger-Sul manufacturers Sulphur Bentonite and Sulphur Bentonite Micronutrients technology.

Tessenderlo Kerley is apart of the Tessenderlo Group which owns Crop Vitality, which is one of the world’s leading producers of sulfur-based fertilizers used in the agriculture industry.

Their portfolio already features products like Thio-Sul, KTS, K-Row 23, CaTs, N-Sure, GranuPotasse, SoluPotasse, and MAJOR 90.

The acquisition is notable because we continue to see increased interest in nutrition and bio-based entities and I do not think it will slow down— particularly for companies that have been around for long periods of time with robust partnerships and sales. Companies are trying to round out their portfolio something that I think we will continue to see in the short term.

7. An Audience of One - Upstream Ag Insights

One of the most common questions I receive is, “how do you determine what to write about?”

The answer, generally speaking, is very simple: I write for Doug—the ambitious agribusiness professional.

Doug’s more than just a hypothetical reader; he’s the filter through which every piece of information is sifted through and thought about.

With every article, I ask myself: Would Doug care about this company, this innovation, this market shift? How could Doug leverage this knowledge to stay ahead, improve his role, or enhance his strategy? And perhaps most importantly, what obstacles might Doug be facing that he hasn’t yet found solutions for?

This concept of building a business or product with a target persona in mind isn’t new, but I think it’s under utilized. The first time I encountered the power of such specificity was in Chip Wilson’s book Little Black Stretchy Pants. Wilson, the founder of lululemon, built the entire brand around a persona named “Ocean.”

Ocean is a young, ambitious woman in her mid-20s to early 30s, educated, professionally established, willing to spend on high quality, but stylish and functional active wear and deeply invested in health and wellness.

Ocean isn’t just a set of demographics; she represents values, aspirations, and an ideal lifestyle that lululemon’s products aim to complement. By designing with Ocean in mind, lululemon didn’t just capture market share; it defined a lifestyle, creating a customer base so loyal they became part of the brand's community.

This approach was key for lululemon to differentiate itself from other athletic brands and become the $37 Billion behemoth that created an entire category of clothing (yoga and athleisure wear) that took on industry stalwarts like Nike.

That example inspired me to do something similar for Upstream Ag Insights.

When I began Upstream Ag Insights in 2020, I knew I didn’t want to write about the status quo, or summarize basic views.

I wanted to breakdown news, technology, business and strategy in a way that felt as if the publication was designed specifically for someone’s current questions, future career aspirations, and evolving challenges. This is where Doug, my audience of one, came in.

Doug is more than just a description. He’s a living profile of ambition in agribusiness, constantly seeking ways to be more innovative, more informed, and more influential. He’s the kind of professional who thrives on new perspectives and strategic insights and wants to shape the future of agriculture.

The full article is free for everyone, in it you’ll find an extensive overview of the persona of Doug which can be used a useful framework in your own business.

New Report and Playbook!

This week I launched two new resources for agribusiness professionals:

  1. The Rise of Biologicals and Specialty Fertilizers: A Dive into Agribusiness Initiatives — A deep dive report into 10 of the most influential agribusinesses partnerships, M&A, investments, along with their current revenue and revenue ambitions in the biological and specialty nutrition segments, where their revenues are coming from today, new initiatives and much more!

  2. Biostimulant Playbook: The Definitive Guide to Positioning Biostimulants — Field-tested frameworks and hard-earned insights for effectively out positioning and out executing the competition in the biostimulant and specialty fertilizer segment, including a market case study applying the frameworks to a real world example from Stoller.

You can purchase The Rise of Biologicals and Specialty Fertilizer Report for $269, plus receive:

  • 1-Year Upstream Ag Professional membership ($299 value) — Receive essential news and analysis direct to your inbox every Sunday, plus access to the entire archive, audio editions for flexible consumption, LLM search functionality and all previous and future deep dive reports.

  • Get the Biostimulant Playbook for NO CHARGE ($27 value)

  • An additional bonus Upstream Ag Insights Foundations article called The Winners Mindset: Influencing the Market vs. Letting the Market Influence You, a crucial concept for being successful in the biostimulants and specialty fertilizers segment.

Non Ag Article

Read More Books - Not Boring

The way serious people learn is by reading. The way they share important information is by writing it down. Read, read, read. Rich people read a lot — Forbes asked a while ago, and the modal answer was two hours per day. The national average is about twenty minutes.

Related: The 10% Rule of Professional Development - Upstream Ag Professional

Other Interesting Ag Articles