What Agribusinesses Need to Know About Carbon Credit Pricing

The below is a Guest Article by Dale Penner, Tom Ogaranko and Tom Bowers of Viresco Solutions.

Index:

1. Why Carbon Credit Pricing Matters

2. Voluntary Carbon Market Background

3. Summary on Pricing Reports (as of August 2025)

4. Protocol Breakdown

   1. Verra VM0042 – Improved Agricultural Land Management Projects:

   2. Pricing for VM0042 VCU

   3. Climate Action Reserve (CAR) Soil Enrichment Projects (SEP)

   4. Credit Issuances and Retirements from Indigo Ag and AgriCapture

   5. Pricing for CAR SEP offsets

   6. Rice Methane Projects

   7. Social Carbon

5. What this means for ag businesses

Why Carbon Credit Pricing Matters

Agriculture is emerging as one of the most dynamic segments of the voluntary carbon market (VCM). While forestry and biochar still dominate volumes and price extremes, agricultural protocols are moving from pilot stage toward scale.

For agribusinesses considering Scope 3 programs, understanding these price signals—and the protocol maturity behind them—is essential to budgeting and risk management.

At Viresco Solutions inc. we evaluate carbon offset protocols under three categories of ‘rigor, scalability and proven value creation’ using our Protocol Readiness Assessment(^TM) This information is critical for ag businesses considering scope 3 programs because it helps them select the right protocol for their needs and risk tolerance. These categories help companies select the right protocol by answering; can I be confident of meeting reporting requirements? If we pilot a project, does it have the potential to scale? And are there buyers for offset credits created through this protocol?

Our analysis focuses on protocols from leading carbon registries, with applicability in North America (some other geographies are covered).  

Background

The voluntary carbon market (VCM) allows organizations to finance climate solutions by purchasing carbon credits, each representing one tonne of carbon dioxide reduced or removed from the atmosphere. CO2e, or carbon dioxide equivalent, is a standardized unit used to measure the climate impact of various greenhouse gases such as methane and nitrous oxide. To ensure credibility, standard-setting bodies such as Verra and the Climate Action Reserve (CAR) develop rules and methodologies that guide how projects can generate these credits.

In agriculture, methodologies enable project developers to earn credits by adopting practices that improve land management (e.g., reducing tillage, planting cover crops, or enhancing nitrogen use efficiency) and livestock efficiency (e.g., methane management and feed additives). here are multiple offset methodologies for crop and livestock production at different levels of maturity.

Credit values vary widely across project types. Forestry credits, for instance, often trade between $1–$30/tonne, while biochar credits can reach $175/tonne. Agricultural credits remain in limited supply, contributing to a broad range of reported prices. The highest volume of carbon credits in this pricing update is currently being generated from improved land management (reduced tillage, cover crops, nitrogen efficiency)  and rice water management.

Summary on Pricing Reports (as of Aug 2025)

• Lowest price: $15 per tonne CO2e (CO2e = Carbon Dioxide equivalent)

• Highest price: $140 per tonne CO2e

• Expected prices are likely to fall somewhere on the lower portion of this range. Quantum Intel reported that credits originating from agricultural projects were expected to range from $15 to $60 per tonne.

Protocol Breakdown

Verra VM0042 – Improved Agricultural Land Management Projects:

There is a limited supply of credits from VM0042 Projects as only two projects have credit issuance. Both projects achieved issuance early in 2025. 44,829 credits (Verified Carbon Units, or “VCUs”) have been issued to VM0042 projects and 76% of these credits have been retired. This is an early indication that there is a relatively high demand for credits from VM0042 based projects.

 The supply of credits is expected to increase in future years as globally there are 165 active projects under development. In North America, there is one project located in Canada and nine projects located in the United States.

• Agreena’s Carbon Program

  • Agreena's project has generated 2.3 million VCUs under Verra's VM0042 methodology, making it the largest soil carbon credit project to date (final credit issuance from Verra pending). Agreena, in the first period of credit issuance operated across 1.6 million hectares and 10 countries. The project generates carbon credits from regenerative agricultural practices, including cover crops, no-till farming, and enhanced nutrient management. Agreena is offering these credits for sale in the voluntary carbon market, with several large European companies, such as Radisson Hotel Group, reportedly having pre-ordered a significant share.

•  CNG AgriCarbon Rewards Programme – Anthesis B.V.

  • Anthesis has issued over 39,206 carbon credits across 17,582 hectares in South Africa using regenerative farming methods like cover cropping and reduced tillage. 34,180 of these VCUs have been retired from the CNG AgriCarbon Rewards Programme by Investec Group (no price disclosure).

•  NaturAll Carbon Program – Conservation Agriculture and Land Management in Brazil

  •  5,623 VCUs (tonnes CO2e) have been issued to NaturAll a VM0042 project in Brazil

Pricing for VM0042 VCUs:

• The latest intelligence via Quantum Intel suggests credit prices of $35 to $40 per tonne are expected for VM0042 credits, while high volume transactions could result in discounts.

• Quantum Intel reported hearing future credit prices from a VM0042 projects in South America

  • An offtake for a large Brazilian VM0042 project was heard at $15/tCO₂e for 2028 delivery, with Minerva’s BRA-3C project set to issue first credits in 2026.

  • A Latin American project under Verra’s VM0042 methodology is offering future delivery credits at around $25/tCO2e.

  • Future volumes under VM0042 from Brazil have been offered at $30/tonne of CO2 equivalent (tCO2e) under offtake agreements.

Climate Action Reserve (CAR) Soil Enrichment Projects (SEP):

CAR projects are located exclusively in the US (due to the methodology's applicability being restricted to the US). There are only 5 projects on the CAR registry, and only 2 projects (by Indigo Ag and AgriCapture) have issued credits under the Soil Enrichment Protocol (sister methodology to Verra’s VM0042 methodology).  

Credit Issuances and Retirements from Indigo Ag and AgriCapture

998,939 credits have been issued 927,296 of these credits have originated from Indigo Ag’s project, while the remaining 71,643 credits have originated from AgriCapture’s project. Of these issuances 324,825 credits have been retired (33% of issuances). However, prior to Indigo Ag’s most recent tranche of credits issued in mid-2025, 70% of the credits issued had been retired.

Pricing for CAR SEP offsets:

The most recent prices for credits from the Indigo Ag projecthave been in the range of $60 to $80 per tonne. While in previous years reported prices ranged from $20 – $40 per tonne.

A Note on Retirements

The 70% retirement rate of credits issued prior to Indigo Ag’s mid-2025 tranche is relatively high compared to typical voluntary market trajectories, where early retirements often cluster around pilot volumes. The decline to a 33% aggregate retirement shares after the most recent issuance reflects a common pattern: as issuance scales up, retirements usually represent a smaller proportion in the near term, with many credits entering inventory and being retired later in alignment with corporate reporting cycles.

In many new methodologies or novel project types (like agricultural soil carbon), the first tranches of credits tend to be bought and retired by “early mover” corporates. This is often driven by marketing/branding needs (they want to show they’re backing innovation) rather than purely offset price considerations. So, a 70% retirement rate of early issuances is relatively high, but not unusual for pilot phases. As more credits are issued, the proportion retired tends to dip because a) more credits are being held in inventory by brokers, aggregators, or buyers hedging future needs and b) not all credits immediately find a home — especially if they come in larger tranches.

Rice Methane Projects

Typically, rice projects generate emission reductions from transitioning farms farm from continuous flooding to alternate wetting and drying. Verra introduced a new rice methodology in 2025; currently only two projects have been listed under development with many more expected to follow. 

As detailed above, AgriCapture a US-based project under the Climate Action Reserve Soil Enrichment Protocol to date has been the only project to generate emission reductions under a major registry.

Pricing reports heard on rice methane projects:

 India (Verra Rice Methane):

•  A rice methane project in India has reportedly secured offtake deals at $17–18 per tonne of CO₂e.

 Japan (JCM Projects):

•  A Japanese developer, Faeger, has offered rice methane credits under the Joint Crediting Mechanism (JCM) in Indonesia at $25/tCO₂e.

Social Carbon

Social Carbon is a lesser know registry on the voluntary carbon market. Similar to Verra, it has two methodologies in the area of improved agricultural land management. SCM0005: Methodology for regenerative land management and SCM0002: Methane emission reduction by adjusted water management practice in rice cultivation. Currently, there are two active projects listed on its registry under SCM0005. 

Pricing reports heard on Boomitra’s project:

• Boomitra, a US soil carbon project developer has had credits issued through Social Carbon and has stated its credits would sell for less than $40 per tonne. Boomitra has been issued nearly 50,000 tonnes from its project in India.

What this means for ag businesses

• Budget with bands: Scarce, verified soil credits may clear higher ($60-$80+), while forward emerging market deals sit at between $15–30/tCO₂e.

• Contract specifics drive price: Delivery year, buffer/insurance terms, verification cadence, data access, permanence provisions, and potential ICVCM/CORSIA alignment all shift valuation

• VM0042 has momentum (165 projects) but will take time to reach market, while CAR projects show risking spot values.

• Farmer translation (illustrative only): If a program credibly generates 0.3–0.6 tCO₂e/acre/year, revenue ranges roughly $5–$48/acre across the price bands above (not net of costs, sharing, or QA/QC).

• Viresco’s Protocol Readiness Assessment™ addressing protocol rigour, scaleability and proven value creation, remains a practical tool for clients to navigate a fragmented and volatile market.

Note - All figures are indicative and based on registry disclosures and market reports as of Aug 2025. Many quotes are heard/offer levels, not confirmed trades.

Protocol Readiness Assessments^TM

In our registry analysis for agriculture related protocols, we found scores ranging from 91% to 43%.  An example of the top scoring protocol for biochar is shown below. (Available with sign up at: https://app.carbonguild.com)

For more information about any of the topics covered in this article please contact [email protected], or visit our website www.virescosolutions.com