Welcome to the 128th edition of Upstream Ag Professional

Index

1. J.R. Simplot: A Billion The Hard Way Breakdown

2. AI and Agribusiness Software: From Systems of Record to Systems of Action

3. CF Industries, POET, and Major Agriculture Co-Operatives Launch Low-Carbon Fertilizer Pilot to Cut Ethanol Production Carbon Intensity

   1. Low Carbon Ammonia Company and Market Analysis

4. Follow Up from Last Week with Examples: What Claude Code and CoWork Buzz Means for Agribusiness Professionals

5. Bioceres Disputes Pro Farm Asset Foreclosure After $15 Million UCC Sale

6. Why AgTech Startups Fail? Evidence from Global Shutdown Patterns in 2025 and the Cost-adoption Mismatch Effect

7. Quick Hits (12 this week)

8. Non Ag Article

9. Other Interesting Ag Articles (7 this week)

This week’s audio edition can be found here and covers the following:

• J.R. Simplot: A Billion The Hard Way Deep Dive

Thank you for being an Upstream Ag Professional member!

This week I am testing out a new “Quick Hits” section which gives a brief overview of news and events throughout the industry. More than just a linked article, but no deeper analysis. It shows up in section #7.

1. J.R. Simplot: A Billion The Hard Way Deep Dive - Upstream Ag Professional

One piece of feedback I get consistently is that I share a lot of books in Upstream, but people share that it can be challenging to find the time to get to them. So what I want to do occasionally is share some of my highlights and key takeaways from books I've read.

I probably won't ever do an audio dive on something like Clayton Christensen's "Innovator's Dilemma" or Hamilton Helmer's "7 Powers" due to sheer breadth. But what I thought would be interesting is to highlight books that can be told more as stories, with interesting anecdotes and takeaways for agribusiness professionals. Similar to the Founders Podcast by David Senra.

Last week, I was re-reading a book called "J.R. Simplot: A Billion The Hard Way," and I thought it would make for a compelling episode.

The Simplot story has meaningful takeaways for agribusiness professionals, including about vertical integration, leveraging technology in your business and understanding commodity markets at a visceral level.

Five Key Takeaways

1. Find value in waste — Simplot built his first significant dollars from bum lambs, cull potatoes, and then gained further by leveraging processing byproducts into feed for his animal operation.

2. Vertical integration compounds advantage — Vertical integration allowed Simplot to capture increased margins at various points in the value chain while maintaining tight control over quality and supply reliability. There are examples in using potato byproduct in animal operations, to entering the fertilizer segment, to even acquiring a saw mill and establishing a wood manufacturing business so that he could control the shipping needs for his dehydrated potatoes

3. Technology as an advantage — Leaning into technology enabled the real expansion of Simplot initially with an automated potato sorter, then also leaning into dehydration technology, to then lestablishing technology for frozen fries. Betting early on equipment and research created outsized returns where he saw a specific problem to be solved.

4. Know your economics — Understanding costs at a granular level delivers the best opportunities to allocate capital, identify synergy and differentiate the business. Simplot knowing his costs to produce a pound of beef allowed him to have confidence investing in research to see how high they could increase the use of potato byproduct in animal feed rations, ultimately improving his economics drastically.

5. Have an appetite for risk — Early in his career, Simplot was more capital-constrained than idea-constrained, something consistent with other empire builders like Rockefeller. This reinforces what Elon Musk often talks about: take on more risk than feels comfortable. There's a telling detail about Simplot's disagreements with one of the Micron (computer chip company he invested in) founders — Simplot was inherently optimistic that things would work out and wanted to continue to reinvest in the business rather than pay a dividend. Great founders often have an almost irrational confidence. Optimism is an edge.

If you are interested in listening, it is available as a podcast, or there is a transcript, both available in the title heading.

2. ICYMI: AI and Agribusiness Software: From Systems of Record to Systems of Action - Upstream Ag Professional

Over the last couple of months I have been looking at vertical software companies from other industries, like services, restaurant management and construction and their approach, offering a vision surrounding artificial intelligence integration into their products.

The aim was to get a baseline for what agribusiness software companies might do, and look at some of the products they could offer to ag retails and crop input manufacturers to position themselves moving forward.

I have published a White Paper exclusively for Upstream Ag Professional members that shares some of the learnings from other industries, what that means for agribusiness software strategy, how AI could impact the offering and where we are headed. At the end I look at some of the capabilities and considerations ag retailers need to be aware of today.

A few takeaways

• Systems of record (ERPs like Agvance, Merchant Ag) remain foundational but are insufficient alone. The next competitive advantage comes from systems of action, towards systems of intelligence with embedded AI that execute workflows autonomously.

• AI agents represent a new tool that can handle repetitive cognitive tasks: processing orders, dispersing recommendations, coordinating logistics, and managing customer communications and advertising initiatives.

• The agribusiness software landscape is fragmented across ERPs, agronomic software, CRMs, and various specialized tools. AI can create an coordination layer that connects these systems.

•  Interface design matters enormously. The winning platforms will meet users where they work: in truck cabs, warehouses, field offices, and manufacturing facilities, not necessarily a chat-based interface.

• First-mover advantage is significant but not insurmountable. The key is moving deliberately: mapping workflows, piloting solutions, and building institutional capability. 

The full paper can be downloaded at the link in the heading.

3. CF Industries, POET, and Major Agriculture Co-Operatives Launch Low-Carbon Fertilizer Pilot to Cut Ethanol Production Carbon Intensity - CF Industries

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