Upstream Ag Professional - January 11th 2026

Welcome to the 125th edition of Upstream Ag Professional!

Happy New Year!

After a couple of weeks off, this week’s edition is packed full of interesting industry news, announcements and analysis.

Index

1. 2026 Ag Equipment Dealer Business Outlook & Trends Report Highlights and Analysis

2. Is AI a Boon for AgTech VCs? Or Will Value Primarily Accrue to Incumbents?

3. The Great Unbundling of Agribusiness

4. Moa Technology and Certis Belchim announce strategic collaboration for new Moa Amplifier™

5. Corteva, BP Form Joint Venture to Produce Biofuels

6. Croptimistic Technology Inc. Launches SWAT LABS

7. Cultura Acquires BIG Consulting, LLC from ALCIVIA and New Vision Co-op, Expanding Agribusiness Intelligence, Transformation and Analytics Services

8. Yara International Capital Market Day 2026

9. NewLife Biosciences Receives Patent Approval for Remediate for Biological Remediation in Agriculture

10. Power Law Examples

11. Other Interesting Ag Articles (15 this week)

GenAi in Agribusiness Survey

I’m running a short survey surrounding how agribusiness professionals are actually using AI in their day-to-day work.

The aim is understand where it’s creating real value, where it’s falling short, and what people expect from the likes of software providers and internal tools, moving beyond anecdotal comments towards a more comprehensive look across the industry in how AI is being leveraged by roles and company sizes.

The survey is 100% anonymous, 22 questions, and takes about four minutes to complete.

I’ll be analyzing and sharing the results within Upstream the first week of February, delivering insights that will allow you to benchmark how your company compares to peers, where new product and workflow opportunities are emerging, and where the industry is investing.

Fill out the Survey here:

Audio Edition

This week’s audio edition can be found here and covers the following:

1. 2026 Ag Equipment Dealer Business Outlook & Trends Report Highlights and Analysis

2. The Great Unbundling of Agribusiness

3. NewLife Biosciences Receives Patent Approval for Remediate for Biological Remediation in Agriculture

Thank you for being an Upstream Ag Professional member!

1. 2026 Ag Equipment Dealer Business Outlook & Trends Report Highlights and Analysis - Upstream Ag Professional

The 2026 Dealer Business Outlook & Trends report by Ag Equipment Intelligence is a forecast based on surveys of North American farm equipment dealers.

The focus is to understand projected revenue, profitability, and industry challenges for the coming year.

The report suggests that dealers anticipate 2026 to be another difficult year due to declining new equipment sales and profitability challenges stemming from high equipment costs and low commodity prices.

Index

1. Equipment Market Outlook

   1. New and Used Equipment Decline

   2. Inventory Pressures

   3. Price Increases

   4. Profitability

   5. Pre Sales/Early Order

2. The Aftermarket Emphasis

   1. Revenue Growth

   2. Margin Improvements

   3. Absorption Rate

3. Top Industry Concerns

4. "Best Bets" for Sales Growth

   1. Dealerships vs. Ag Retailers in Precision Ag

5. Workforce and Investment Plans

   1. Hiring

   2. Capital Expenditures

6. Dealer Optimism

7. Other Interesting Charts

   1. Total Size by Dealer Type

   2. Used Tractor Pricing Trends

Highlights

• Revenue Decline - The majority of dealers saw revenue drops in 2025, and nearly 45% forecast further declines in 2026.

• Inventory Challenges Persist - "Too high" of inventory levels remain a major struggle for 42% of dealers (new equipment). 27% said their used equipment inventory was too high.

• Profitability Declines - Only 72.5% of dealers forecast to be profitable in 2025, the lowest confidence level in five years.

• Pricing - Despite lower demand, prices continue to increase. Nearly 99% of dealers expect manufacturers to raise prices by 1–6% in 2026 across products.

• Hiring - 64% of dealers plan to add service technicians in 2026. "Technician availability" is the #3 concern amongst dealers.

• Mobile Service Investment - There is a continued shift toward "servicing the farm, not the product." 46% of dealers plan to invest in mobile service vehicles, with AGCO dealerships being the highest, followed closely by John Deere.

2. Is AI a Boon for AgTech VCs? Or Will Value Primarily Accrue to Incumbents? - Upstream Ag Professional

This week I read the State of VC in agtech: Will 2026 be the year funding — finally— rebounds? from AgTech Navigator.

One thing that stood out to me was the view that AI brings opportunity for investors in agriculture. (Note: There are a lot of different applications for AI: machine vision on equipment, genAI in software and R&D discovery as just a few examples. I will try and address the latter two).

It is hard to ignore the buzz surrounding AI in agriculture, and this article highlights why investors are paying attention. I agree that AI is bringing functional value to users in the industry and on the farm.

However, for investors, the outlook to derive returns seems more nuanced. While AI is likely to continue to drive utility at the farm level, the path to venture-scale returns seems less obvious.

Instead of a greenfield of new startups, we might be looking at a landscape where the primary beneficiaries are incumbents leveraging AI to deepen their moats.

For example, one comment from PitchBook Analyst, Alex Frederick, shares the following:

Let’s first consider the software side of AI in ag.

Subscribe to Upstream Ag Professional to read the rest.